The cult thinks he has a chance if they keep flooding the zone with bs. GOP likes to show the red/blue state pic, but a map by population density is more accurate. He lost the popular vote in 2016, 2020 and most likely continue to lose ground. He’s now claiming he never said “Lock her up.” Only the most radicalized will rationalize that claim. Most independents will pivot from the DT circus.
Several very good Trump polls yesterday, including a Rasmussen +5. https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls I'd discount any one, but the 'Morning consult' one erased a post-trial decline. Trumps odds at Insight Prediction and Poly back up as well.
Another update from Insight Forecasts: Basically, on average, a slight movement toward Biden in the polls, markets, and model. Biggest one is probably the recontacted NYTimes swing state poll.
The last two elections have shown Biden probably needs to win the popular vote by about +3 to +4 to win the presidency. If polling is correct, NV has moved further to the right than other states since 2020. I’m seeing Trump consistently win NV, NC, GA, and AZ outside the margin of error. If he holds those states he needs either one of MI, PA, or WI or he could force a 269-269 tie by getting NE-2 and ME-2. The actual business itself is a complete joke, $4M in revenue on $50M in spending. The question is what will they do with capital raised? Will it simply be funneled to Trump? Based on his scammy history that’s ultimately my best guess.
I think the bias of PA relative to the nation might be smaller this cycle, as minorities tend to be moving toward Trump, and Biden does better with whites. Biden may not run up the popular vote score as much in NY and CA, but still eek out a tight victory in PA/MI/WI. Thus T could conceivably win the popular bote.
Just when "interesting times" couldn't get any more interesting. I'd love to see that. That would be a hoot.
Polls indicate that Trump is doing better in blue states he won't win (like NJ/NY), while the Rust Belt might have shifted more blue since 2020. That said, the polls were way off in the Rust Belt compared to other regions in 2020. They were showing Biden winning comfortably when he barely won Then the Rust Belt went more blue than expected in 2022 so it's really hard to predict. At the end of the day nobody knows if they have an accurate representative sample of actual voters until it's over.