CRCL is a momentum play -- in this case an IPO momentum. I outlined my thoughts on the other CRCL thread regarding this trade. There are studies which indicate fast momentum stocks especially IPOs usually will retreat after they rise 10x of their initial price over the period of a month or so. CRCL was introduced to the market at $31 -- this puts 10x at $310. My $279 target price marks a factor of safety of $31 (9x) off the $310. I will readily admit that this is not any type of complex, brilliant system for setting a target sell price -- but it is a written rule I have had for momentum trades since 1999. Many times I see momentum stocks fall just short of the 10x level. CRCL is another example of the price getting above the 9x level but not hitting 10x before a price re-entrenchment. There is only so far hype and euphoria can take the price of a stock over short period of time before the buying pressure fades and profit taking occurs. After this the stock will dip for a period -- and then may rise again rapidly as buyers jump back in on the dip. Effectively creating another good buying opportunity assuming the enthusiasm does not fade leaving the stock to linger in a long downward decline over years. Plug Power is one example that comes to mind where PLUG back in 1999 had huge price momentum rising approximately 10x before fading away forever. We have seen many IPOs that had an initial pop to high levels and then receded -- leading to multi-year declines where they are now effectively forgotten about penny stocks. In regards to CRCL -- I cannot create a valuation for the stock using standard fundamental formulas. I am not a crypto trader and lack the necessary knowledge to define valuation from a crypto market perspective. I was willing to trade it as a momentum play for a week long time frame; I will not be including CRCL as a long-term investment in my portfolio. If I don't understand something then I don't invest in it.
Paypal was mentioned previously. Just noticed today what a chit chart they have since being spun off Ebay 5 years ago!
Either we drop to 160 or bounce back around the 10sma. Betting on a 10sma bounce of course. Time / cycle wise we should bounce (next week). But the market does what he wants. The call can easily double / triple / quadruple. Can easily ends worthless as well.
At this point it appears the CRCL is re-entrenching. I would not enter a trade at this point until it hits the lower Bollinger Band. At this point the stock does not even have a 20 day Bollinger Band due to its short trading history but the 10 day Bollinger Band is down at $116.93. I would not be "buying on the dip" unless CRCL penetrated this lower Bollinger Band (in a couple of days the 20 day can be used). This does not mean that CRCL will hit this low level before going up. It may very well only drop to a higher price. It simply means that I would not enter a trade from a "win probability" until it hit this level. Naturally the opinion of others will vary.
CRCL peak was 265. Now at 178. And the newbies said: whaaaa!!!!! So cheap!!!! Let me buy tons of CRCL And the price drop further. And the newbies said: whaaaa!!!!! So cheap!!!! Let me buy tons of CRCL And the price drop further. And the newbies said: whaaaa!!!!! So cheap!!!! Let me buy tons of CRCL
Not that I disagree with your assessment. It is spot on. I will just note that CRCL hit $298.99 at about 11:40am on Monday (6/23).
CTO Larsson has crcl on gold indicator on the 1 hour candle, not enough data for daily candles I think crcl will be ~$500 before eoy depending on how high bitcoin price goes and the whole crypto bull market cycle behaves in the 2nd half of the year starting next week I have no position on crcl, yet, enjoying the beatings from mstr ootm call options for now Good luck with your crcl position, if it I were to take a position, I'd be interested in the Feb 2026 call options to prolong the pain