What is Circle stock (CRCL) and why is everyone talking about it?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by AndrewLokenauth, Jun 22, 2025.

  1. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    something about always replying, right?
     
    #21     Jun 24, 2025
    spy likes this.
  2. spy

    spy

    Lol. It's ok nwm. Just bustin' balls in good fun.... you really want me to surrender and warring is not that important to me. So, here:

    You're the best computer science trader I've ever met!
    You can quote me. Happy? Feel better? Feel superior? I want you to be happy (even if you're wrong, lol).

    Seriously, from one stubborn mofo to another... no hard feelings.

    Edit: for those who are disoriented, the backstory is here.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2025
    #22     Jun 24, 2025
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    Two threads on CRCL, I pick this one, lots of drama :D

    What is CRCL and what's the big deal?

    • Circle is like a digital bank (for crypto assets financial ecosystem) but not really, since they do not have to pay interest, nor adhere to strict banking regulations outside of their direct customers
    • Circle sells digital (crypto asset) tokens USDC for $1 each
    Imagine if you will that they sold $61 Billion worth of these USDC tokens so far and will continue to sell more in the future

    What if 20% of those USDC tokens will forever be lost (private keys, dead owners, lost hard drives,) over the course of time. For bitcoin this is estimated to be 30-40% (not including Satoshi's coins) but bitcoin has been around longer

    And another 20-30% of those USDC tokens are locked up in crypto assets smart contracts TVL (total value locked)

    So essentially, CRCL has $25-30 Billion of free cash that they may never have to pay back, and the other $30 Billion don't have any incentives to be redeemed, and over time, the USDC supplies tend to grow bigger

    (except during the bear market of 2022 as there were liquidations from crypto firms that became insolvent, I think about $10 B of outflows from USDC)

    So CRCL is like a digital bank that has $61 B of liabilities but pay no interest, and has no risks of insolvency, since they are not over leveraged 30 to 1

    They could just buy short term treasuries and collect billions of $ of yield

    The more USDC tokens they sell in the future, the more US $ they get for free (remember they do not have to pay interest)

    What should be the value of this CRCL?

    I say $500 Billion today


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    upload_2025-6-24_16-51-13.png [/user]
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2025
    #23     Jun 24, 2025
    NoahA likes this.
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Too bad there isn't a -1 font size.

    Bet a certain someone could use their "skills" to find a gif for that.
     
    #24     Jun 24, 2025
  5. USDC is already subject to audits and now the will increase even more now that circle is public.

    do you mean tether? They are the ones that just do attestations.

    The fact that tether just does attestations not a full audit has caused an entire subculture on this forum to miss hundreds of percents of bitcoins rally lol something I will still never understand
     
    #25     Jun 24, 2025
    johnarb and SunTrader like this.
  6. do you have a link to one of them audits? All I can find are attestations. Crypto ain’t my bag I sell stonk market insurance.
     
    #26     Jun 24, 2025
  7. Circle.com/transparency

    go down to the “independently audited” drop down.

    basically there is an attestation every month in addition to a big four audit
     
    #27     Jun 24, 2025
  8. NoahA

    NoahA

    Its a really good point about the lost coins and how much is locked up and hence likely never to be redeemed. But imagine if the Fed does start dropping rates. That is an instant hit to the profitability. Tether and Circle are of course at the mercy of the interest rate. Clearly, even 0.25% payments on $150B will be plenty for Tether to pay their very small work force, but for Circle, if there are several rate cuts, the income part will drop quite a bit. I have no idea where interest rates are going, and if its even possible for them to hit 1% or lower ever again, but in a rate dropping cycle, I imagine the CRCL stock to get hammered.
     
    #28     Jun 24, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    That's a very good point, if the US goes back to NIRP and I think the stablecoin regulations require Circle to back the USDC with UST's , that would be a big negative to earnings outlook for CRCL

    Tether with their excess profits are buying bitcoin, gold, and getting into the bitcoin mining business, CRCL could do it, too, with excess profits (if any) outside of the 1-to-1 backing
     
    #29     Jun 24, 2025
    NoahA likes this.
  10. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    CRCL is down from yesterday's high of 300 to 220 today. What gives? Too much gain too fast?
     
    #30     Jun 24, 2025
    johnarb likes this.