The keyword here is ALMOST, not ALWAYS But I personally don't scalp just 3-6 ticks, so this is irrelevant for me. I was merely saying that it can possibly work with very methodical setups.
Personally, I like to go for larger moves and I don't give a shit about win rate (which is often less than 50 %). My average stop on ES these days is around 5 points and as a minimum I target 5 points, but ideally at least 10. Yesterday's trading. I knew 4400 would print, but I did a misread on the Open as I thought we'd see more of a dip first. My win rate was 33 %. If you can catch 20 points in a single trade, that's 80 x 4 tick scalps. If you factor in costs, it's closer to 100 x 4 tick scalps. Why scalp for ticks when the market is offering so much more? Also, I generally don't care about single 5-minute bars as the market short term is noisy.
Well, almost always may not be good enough. Like I showed, you need to be right 78 % of the time if your R/R is at an inverse ratio of 1:3. I agree that it can possibly work. Just not likely to happen for most people.
that is where probability comes in you have to only trade high probability set up like second entry. i am not saying you enter anywhere and you will get 3-4 ticks. only the highest probability set up like second entry this will work. if you sit the whole day you will get 3-4 set ups i think
That's too bad. Shame on Al. i am a bit surprised but many do not talk about it . i have come actross amny gurus in my 30 yrears but this is the first i have heard of it. you should become a guru
if you can wait 5 min is nonsense. ok i get the idea just see the general direction of the market when it is a narrow channel and swing. yes that is much better than going for a few ticks. lot less work too and more money... no wonder you dont scalp 5 min i used to hold stock futures for 4 months so i know what you are talking
That's surprising to me. I took me a while to realize that most people don't know shit about trading - and that includes most gurus and the vast majority of posters on ET. The few ones that know something worthwhile tend to keep their lips shut and don't make much noise. So, ever since I learned that, I've just focused on studying the market and doing research instead. As for becoming a guru, I've considered if that would be an easier path to riches. Write up my own method and sell it for risk free money. But, since I think I'm a pretty fantastic trader, I'll see if I can monetize it myself first instead. Today, I have my eyes set on 4420. I'm prepared to take a few stabs to get it or reverse short if I'm wrong. Small stops. Big targets. Add to a winner, i.e., scale in a few units if we start moving above 4400.