WHAT IS A SECOND ENTRY ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by padutrader, Oct 28, 2023.

  1. padutrader

    padutrader

    :D:D:D:D:D

    you asking a lot of questions..... are in police or the Gestapo / SS
     
    #221     Nov 7, 2023
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  2. padutrader

    padutrader

    if i am dead ,no
     
    #222     Nov 7, 2023
  3. padutrader

    padutrader

    yes consistency is the main thing.
    there are 3 days left in the week

    let us see if i can repeat it for 3 days to start with
     
    #223     Nov 7, 2023
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  4. Hello padutrader,

    You trade very well today. Great stats. Keep up the good work.
     
    #224     Nov 7, 2023
  5. Hello Laissez Faire,

    He can
     
    #225     Nov 7, 2023
  6. Just trying to educate you and open your eyes, buddy.

    Doesn't Al Brooks teach expectancy? Understanding expectancy is key for any trader.

    Risk 12 ticks ($150) to gain 4 ticks ($50). Let's take a closer look...

    If we factor in costs at $5 per trade, you need a 78 % (!) win rate just to breakeven. Read that again. 78 % to break even.

    Buddy. You can get it right 78 out of 100 trades and you're breakeven. Imagine that. 100 trades and you're breakeven.

    Here's a basic Monte Carlo simulation for that system (model account is the flat arrow) with various runs around that. Just by chance, you'll have a few bad runs and a few good runs. Many traders are fooled by randomness.

    upload_2023-11-8_0-3-25.png

    At 85 % win rate your average expectancy per trade is $15. An improvement, but as you can see, you're not really going anywhere.

    upload_2023-11-8_0-5-11.png

    In summary, you need to win 85 out of 100 times in order to have a fighting chance.

    If I were you, I'd consider doing the reverse. Set up a system where you don't need to always be right and still can make progress. Of course, do what you can to improve your win rate, but if you risk 1 to gain 3 (the opposite of what you're proposing), you can do well with a win rate below 50 %. And that's easier to sustain long term.
     
    #226     Nov 7, 2023
    semperfrosty and ironchef like this.
  7. ironchef

    ironchef

    @Laissez Faire,

    @SimpleMeLike told him that but @padutrader prefers perfection.

    @SimpleMeLike said just click, click, click, buy and sell.

    I tried paper trade that idea, one out of 5-10 entries was a very profitable run. I could be profitable as long as I set a very tight stop. Of course like your Monte Carlo, it was Sim. :D
     
    #227     Nov 7, 2023
  8. schizo

    schizo

    One thing to note, however, is that the expectancy of getting 4 ticks in ES is far higher than say 12 ticks. I, for one, almost always get anywhere from 3-6 ticks as soon as I enter a trade. So if you're micro-scalping with relatively high leverage, it can work.
     
    #228     Nov 7, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.
  9. padutrader

    padutrader

    mine was 48

    but your right he does not talk about expectancy.
     
    #229     Nov 7, 2023
  10. Of course. If you almost always get 3-6 ticks as soon as you enter a trade I imagine you won't need a 12 tick stop either and that changes everything of course.

    Leverage is irrelevant for this equation, though, although of course, the higher your leverage the higher your risk of ruin. And high win rate system with an inverse R/R ratio generally aren't robust as just by chance you'll eventually take a beating where you'll give back a huge amount of profits on as little as 3 full stops in a row.

    That's too bad. Shame on Al.
     
    #230     Nov 8, 2023