What is a "high probability, low risk" entry?

Ditch - you mention with that setup you can achive a 80/20 win loss ratio - what does that mean?

Does it mean that in backtesting, 80 of 100 trades were winners?

Does it mean if I traded it tomorrow, 8 out my first 10 trades would be winners? Or does it mean that my first 200 trades of 1000 would be losers?

 

Quah, I vote "all of the above"

-Fast

 

Agreed. When evaluating a system I will generally take the average % divided by the number of days the trade is on. Doing such gives me an idea of the average percentage gained per day.

 

I like the answers so far so I'll be even more specific:

How can I find a method I can trade that will enable me to pull consistent profits out of the market?

Definitions:
Consistent profits - Average 5 ES points/day/contract. Daily win rate over 60-70%.
Method - Methodology, system or rules that define specific entries, sizing and exit points. Preference for visual/candles/support&resistance/volume. Low or negative preference for technical indicators (excluding possibly divergence trades on stoch, CCI, MACD, etc.)
"method I can trade" - Maximum risk <= 2 ES points/trade (tighter = better). Win ratio > 40-45%. Generates 3-20 trades/day. Timeframe: 3-5 minute chart. Enables possibility for ocassional "homerun" trades. (I tend to like to hold... too long sometimes). Exit rules are chart based (eg. SAR/trendline break, etc.) No trailing stop. Breakeven stop should be chart based not a money stop. Targets are tough for me to keep. (although I'm willing to change my psychology on that one if need be)

A turnkey methodology would be great. Just kidding. How do I go about finding the above? And is the above possible? Possible to find? (not theoretically. Realistically.) How?

 

Your problem is not the method, but the trader.

 

He means you lack experience, not that something's wrong with you.

 

FireWalker, you may find someone here kind enough to take you by the hand and provide you with all this information, but more likely you'll be told to do a Search and look up the information yourself.

Everything you want to know is right here. You just have to want it bad enough to look for it. Once you have enough to start with, begin a Journal and you'll receive even more help, if you're serious about improving. Otherwise . . .

 

Not asking to be taken by the hand. More asking for pointers to methods that would qualify.

 

A Krispy Kreme across the street from the police station.

 

the answer is obvious:

The one that was never placed.


That's the "entry" with best chance of winning.