What is a chance that Monday is down?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by noddyboy, Jun 22, 2007.

What is a chance that Monday is down?

Poll closed Jun 24, 2007.
  1. 100% Up!

    20 vote(s)
    28.2%
  2. 50-50%

    39 vote(s)
    54.9%
  3. 100% Down

    12 vote(s)
    16.9%
  1. S2007S

    S2007S


    exactly!
     
    #11     Jun 22, 2007
  2. Fractal

    Fractal

    I don't like to predict, and I can't stand the annoying market calls on this site, but it looks like it's finally going to crack a bit on my end. Not that anyone's opinion matters.
     
    #12     Jun 22, 2007
  3. Well this is something we cannot predict
    IF there is no bad news we could go higer
    if oil goes to $75 and bear stern ,s open his mouth we could go much much lower
     
    #13     Jun 22, 2007
  4. ouch, this place has turned to piss. No one has a clue how the mkt works. If I were a betting man (and I am) we go south.
     
    #14     Jun 23, 2007
  5. We bears love to "consolidate" you youg'uns.

    Euphoria? It's over rover.
     
    #15     Jun 23, 2007
  6. just like the summer of '87, credit spreads continue to widen and liquidity is starting to dry up...........

    back then, junk bonds began to crater as the Fed. raised rates, only this time the credit market junk is levered 15 to 1....

    this aint gonna get fixed anytime soon, and when it comes, it will be most distasteful....
     
    #16     Jun 23, 2007
  7. the only people who care where we open on monday are the cheerleaders. we TRADE. they don't
     
    #17     Jun 23, 2007
  8. bl33p

    bl33p

    Isn't this just the start of ARMs exploding, the largest explosions are still ahead in last half of 2007, all year 2008 and first half of 2009.

    Add Iraq, Iran, Asia's exploding trade surplus and the presidential election and we're into some very interesting times.
     
    #18     Jun 23, 2007
  9. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Some contrarian view that China is not yet at its peak?

    The boiling point
    Jun 21st 2007 | HONG KONG
    From The Economist print edition

    How does China's bubble compare with previous financial manias?

    ALAN GREENSPAN, the former chairman of America's Federal Reserve, always insisted when in office that it was extremely hard to spot bubbles before they had actually burst. This, he said, is one reason why policymakers should never try to prick them. Today, however, he seems to have no doubts that China's stockmarket is bubbling over. He recently declared that Chinese share prices were “clearly unsustainable”, with a risk of a “dramatic contraction”.

    It is curious that China's bubble seems so blindingly obvious to Mr Greenspan and so many other Americans who remained in denial about their own dotcom mania right to the end. For according to The Economist's “Bubble guide” (see chart), China's recent share-price boom is still relatively modest compared with the giants of history. The chart plots the performance of Chinese share prices over the past five years against the three great bubbles of the 20th century: Wall Street in the 1920s, Japan in the 1980s and America's NASDAQ in the 1990s. The NASDAQ composite index saw a gain of more than 500% from 1995 to early 2000. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped by 300% from 1984 to 1989. The Shanghai A-share index, having recovered most of its plunge in late May, shows a gain of about only 160% over the past five years.


    Moreover, Chinese A-shares now have an average price-earnings (p/e) ratio of around 45. At their peaks, the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei 225 in 1989 and the NASDAQ at the start of 2000 were both well over 100. This suggests that Chinese share prices could have much further to climb before the bubble bursts—unless China's policymakers are braver than Mr Greenspan and take bolder action to dampen the market now.
     
    #19     Jun 23, 2007
  10. I was right, again! Geez, it's like I'm cursed :)
     
    #20     Jun 25, 2007