I wouldn't say that past behavior is NO indication of future behavior. I eat eggs and bacon or sausage for breakfast most mornings. Therefore, I probably will the next day if I am where there are some
Good points. It's unfortunate that so many traders take things at face value. They use almost all of these indicators straight out of the can, as if that was the only way to use them. Why couldn't you make your own indicator out of them. Don't just change the parameters, change the whole damn formula if you need to. Be creative.
Yeah, futures indexes behave differently to stocks. The indexes are comparitively well behaved and generally follow patterns, stocks on the other hand, especially those further down the capitilization ladder have more weird behaviour. One day they eat bacon and eggs, next day they wear it.
Just looking at a random 5 min chart is useless. However, in context with say the ES which is bullish due to good economic conditions and getting the trade deal done, we can then see in both ES and CL bullish trends in a LOWER time frame say like the 5 min chart. So in this case a Support will be more likely to hold vs a random 5 chart where a Support will just have a 50% chance of holding. What people don't understand about TA is that you don't need a 100% win rate. If say you eat eggs and bacon 5 out of 7 days, I can place a bet each day say $ 100 that you will eat eggs and bacon. So I would win $ 500 and lose $ 200, for an overall profit of $ 300 for the week. This would be a winning system. Now let's say 3 out of 7 days you eat pancakes. And let's say when you eat pancakes you will give me $ 1000 if I bet $ 100. So I would lose $ 400, but make $ 3000 for a net profit of $ 2600. Still a winning system even though I lose most days of the week.
%% Speaking of TA that lags; I still find a 200 dma useful. BUT it lags a lot+ some hate it LOL,. Some asked is TA about turning lead to gold LOL?? NO, not @ all, but some gold/silver/lead mines make money+ some don't ; + not a stock/ETF tip + not a prediction