Let's differentiate TA that lags from TA that is predictive. TA lags the price action normally however if you learn to project the indicators where they are fixed in values and don't move with every new tick, now your on to something. You would be taking the best of math and converting it to price action application. Just as trend lines, support resistance numbers and numerous static number assistant trading tools.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/are-we-going-to-run-out-of-shares.298936/ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-is-easy.321831/ didn't mean to sound absolute at all... after all I am just an amateur investor/trader, nowhere near the sophistication of the pros..
%% Well that depends do888. Bull markets [yes] have no resistance; bear markets have NO support."Waste of time'' pretending there is resistance in a bull market uptrend................................................................................................Thanks
It appears that you do not have a favorable view on Fundamental analysis,yet I noticed in another thread you look at the forward earnings yield curve of the S and P as a barometer for going long??? And what in the world is conventional fundamental anaysis vs non conventional ??? You should define technical analysis as you have a very narrow focus on what it is.... Are you familair with stat arb,pairs trading ??? Do you trade derivatives?? Long or short vol??
conventional being looking at company value metrics in an isolated way; technical analysis for dummies stuff; there are of course more fancy methods but they cannot escape the fate of self-defeat. I don't trade fancy... straight buy and sell.
For futures, TA when used correctly shows the current trend. Think of it this way, you are driving your car on the freeway. Eventually all freeways end. Your GPS will tell you when you need to get off of the freeway to get to your location. TA will tell you if you should even get on the freeway, when to get off, or if you should get on the freeway that is going in the opposite direction. Remember TA is not 100% correct. So you need Trade Management to let you to get off the freeway right now since you took the wrong freeway. Assuming you don't automate the system and trade manually like I do, by taking a "limitless" pill, you will remember how to use your TA correctly.
Ok. On a serious note. From a non-technician who nonetheless always incorporated TA into his decision tree. I always thought it healthy, on major breakouts of significant support and resistance that after the breakout, it is retested. So looking at a long term chart, I see the major-major resistance that was 1600 spx, and recognize that after the breakout it was never retested and would now be a 50% replacement from current levels. Sounds nuts but I remember in '07 saying to someone something similar about the upward sloping trendline and how the market could go back to 800 and still be holding the major uptrend. Just thoughts from a non TA'er at a 10,000 ft perspective.