This is completely subjetive point. A lot of time this question has been made in this forum. Anyway,markets are all the time changing so the thing that is leading the other could be leaded by the other at any given time. For example, you can see that a few days ago a perfect correlation between USDJPY and ES has taken place. Someone can say that the ES was leading the USDJPY or viceversa, anyway, the point is that this doesn't mean the USDJPY and the ES have a correlation all the time. During this week someone could say the "asian" markets has driven the opening giving interesting gaps to the US markets, anyway, is usually exactly the opposite. THe point is that, in this huge net of products related, none is the main leader and everything depends of something else. I've seen the equity market attached many times to the OIL for a few days and then focus in something else like earnings, and then bonds/yields and then .... whatever. So there is no final answer for this thread anyway
For instance for three months a stock may range 50 cents. So you plot the range and figure the trend and S/R etc. But then one day blam: Event!!! Events disturb the equilibrium and then a new model is needed. However it is exactly these events which can be the most profitable. So do you need more than one strategy--probably. Sorry got OT. Everything Chauncey1 said...