I assume the electronic S&P mini is the best indicator for the direction of the equity market as a whole, and would be used in the top-flight equity algorithms for the component of a stock's price that is correlated to the market. But I've never actually confirmed this from an S&P mini trader. Is this true? While we're at it, what leads the S&P mini, or other best indicator of the broader market, the majority of the time? Gold, oil, dollar?
Broker/dealers. Cumulative breadth. Lately BRIC. Oil uncoupled. Dollar important likely as it relates to the not readily available liquidity figures.
"BRIC" --- a bunch of " yen carry trades in various currencies" getting shmeared in asian trading actually it might refer to some of the largest emerging markets in the world whose stock markets have been under pressure in recent weeks
================= QQQQ leads ,SPY,DIA in %% lost ; & %% gained ,last 7 0r 8 years. Dont know if it leads on a 3 minute chart or not ; dont use 3 minute chart. You re probably aware ES is more correlated to YM,DIA than QQQQ....... Most likely correct on ES; if real estate is included, interest rates more than ES, dont know if you meant that broad of market or not??? Some oscillators lead ES somewhat well ; except in strong trends, a rather notable weakness, which limits thier usefulness, except in sideways trends.
And Es/S & P 500/SPY, if you had to pick one benchmark; would pick that one, most funds do. Sure it varies from day to day; IWM outperforms QQQQ some times , on a %% basis upside, but IWM didnt go down near as much as QQQ ,last bear market, W-bear
This question pops up almost once or twice per month here at ET and I just can't figure out why so many traders continue to think its ONE thing that leads the market most of the time. With that said, I've been trading the the Eminis almost since their birth and the leading indicators from day one are the same leading indicators today and will be tomorrow. * Market Seasonal Tendencies (cycles) * Intraday Market Tendencies * Other Key Markets * Key Economic Reports * Key Regular Schedule Market Events * Market Breadth Indices Simply, there will always be a different leader from the above choices for today, tomorrow, the following day and so on. Further, what's leading the market the first hour of trading may not be the same leader several hours later and such usually is the case. For example, look at last week's trading and increased volatility... Everybody knows (it was big news for three trading days) what was leading the U.S. markets which was different the week before that. Compared that to today's leader of the markets that took control soon after 1:30pm est and finally flexed its muscled around 2pm est... Different leader again in comparison to those key three trading days last week. Mark