Interesting thread, Mark! I have been tracking unusual volume and OI changes in the Australian options market for a couple of years now and also find it often precedes large moves. Doesn't usually help with direction or even where the stock might be pinned at expiration, but certainly lends itself to bi-directional strategies.
FA, thatâs wonderful, thanks very much! Here is an intraday 30-min ATN chart with marked the big Feb 25 put buys. Almost undeniable short term reaction (MMâs hedging by shorting stock?), but still puzzled by the daily developments: Especially by the big bashing on expiration Friday 15th with volume 2.2M (15 times the avg. daily 150k) and someone especially eager to ram it down from 25 to 24.31 (500k shares) in the last 30 minutes. Do these want their 15k puts in-the-money? Then what? Canât sellâm, only exercise and sell (short?) 1.5M shares? This is definitely intriguing and probably valuable as well. Pls. letâs share some more thoughts (sceptics welcome).
===================== Nprofit; Some more thoughts, on the ATN ''puzzle of daily development'' ATN has spent lots of time below 50 day moving average; so that explains lots of put buying. However in Jan, Feb, buyers clearly came in @ monthly lows; also thats close to 12 month lows also. Also that stock is now in the uptrending sector of EOG ; high gas/oil over $100 may change this stock's personality.Buiy volume is doubling, again & again. They may sell it @38 .38 area again
Not quite related to the option market, but interesting technical look. Meanwhile I have tried to reconcile the exp.friday bashing (volume 15X the avg.) with the upcoming > 40% price increase, but all I can think of is that these sellers must be banging their heads against the wall. No, there is just not the volume or OI anywhere for some inscrutable spread position (unless intermarket..??), these wanted to sell or short stock, at least as far as my analysis capabilities go. Please call me stupid and tell me what happened.....