What if a trade doesn't immediately move in your favor?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by jbob, Mar 5, 2008.

  1. After seeing that clusterf***k of a trading screen, my advice to the OP is to totally ignore it. Indicatorology with its tired rules and required multiple confrmations required to pull the trigger can't compete with a naked 15 minute bar.

    Jack, I know an expert trader who will give you an indicatorectomy and accept Medicare for payment. PM for his number.
     
    #31     Mar 9, 2008
  2. Hilarious! Thanks for the explanation of the 27 minute rule... now I understand it much better :D
     
    #32     Mar 9, 2008
  3. Specterx

    Specterx

    Why should you take a loss just because the price hasn't moved in your favor after an arbitrary amount of time? Seems like an easy way to generate comms, lose your position and turn winners into losers...
     
    #33     Mar 9, 2008
  4. If you know "for sure" that it's not gonna go back in your favour, then close it.

    Otherwise, let it ride.
     
    #34     Mar 9, 2008
  5. fseitun

    fseitun

    When we initiate a position, we believe the odds are on our side.

    Whatever the underlying reason for us to believe the odds are on our side, once we are in a trade we must monitor the market and determine whether the probabilities of success are increasing or decreasing.

    As soon as we lose our edge, we must get out because it becomes a futile trade.

    So let's say we go long because ES is holding its low of the day against all other eminis.

    As soon as ES makes new lows, we should be out. That's our stop simply because the main reason behind our trade - our perceived edge - was ES holding its lows.

    As long as ES holds its lows, then we have no reason to get out until we reach our minimum trade target.

    A fixed time stop does not take into account current volatility.

    27 minutes can be very costly during high volatility or could be too short during low volatility.
     
    #35     Mar 9, 2008
  6. wow jack owning up this thread....
     
    #36     Mar 9, 2008
  7. Thanks for the insightful Q's. A static pic is not too informative as we know but I am just programming the person who asked for the snagit (several have commented). I referenced a doc of 77 pages that did show some of the dynamic in illustrations. the present tack being used, however, is to not read the references and just dig up out of context stuff and spray it into other old stuck threads.

    Again. thanks for the Q's; they are right on.

    I attached the sweeps chart.
     
    #37     Mar 9, 2008

  8. I like that statement you make on what you think I said.

    It is:

    "required multiple confrmations required to pull the trigger"

    Reversing is what is being done.

    The best time to reverse is when the profit segment has expired and another is beginning.

    Confirming a reversal is not done as trgger pulling. Trigger pulling is what you do to achieve and entry or an exit. naturally, you may consider holding and reversing as pulling triggers. One would be to hold and the other would be to reverse.

    MADA is a routine that is repeated. It is repeated over and over as each 5 minute bar forms. The consequence of MADA each lap is called closure. I like to think of the value of closure in a repeated routine as a cleaning of the slate. At the time the slate is cleaned only one rule has been applied and the rule only provides one of two results.

    You HOLD or you REVERSE. HOLD makes more money and REVERSE puts you on the other side of the market AND takes profits.

    A HOLD is pulling the triggr to make more profits. On the Sweep Sheet this is the end of the path down the sheet from Coarse to, if necessary, Medium and, if necessary, to Fine and then, perhaps, a viewable BEHAVIORAL ACTION as the last step of the routine. To be clear, most sweeps just go as far as where the word Continue appears and the sweep is done. Continue means HOLD. Pull the hold trigger yet one more time to stay in the trade to make more profits after closure of MADA has just happened.

    One rule from the template: Either HOLD or REVERSE. Both are 100% certainties and there is zero overlap in the possible results of a sweep. There is NO probability of any sort whatsoever.

    It is required to do MADA over and over. Each lap involves a data set that could be small or large depending on a sufficiency test. If you have sufficient data to be certain you LOOK NO FURTHER FOR ANYTHING ELSE and you either HOLD or REVERSE as dicated by the MARKET. THEN YOU REPEAT MADA.

    Look at your 15 minute naked bar. There are 26 a day more or less. If an expert trader is doing 20 to 40 trades a day to make 3 times ATR as a basic income, then a fifteen minute bar is calling it pretty close as a data set for decision making. Bar volatility is probably about 75 dollars per contract for each bar going from one extreme to another. I'm sure you pull the trigger more than once a bar on occasion. I do MADA over 15 times on a fifteen minute bar. I reach closure on Montioring, analysis, decision making and Action each time I do MADA; I am current all of the time and carving turns at the end of each possible profit segment. Price plays a relatively small roll in trading to make all the market offers. For me a 15 minute bar is like background music.

    Your view of what I do and recommend is just about diametrically opposite of what you say.

    "required multiple confirmations" is your way of putting that you feel I am uncertain all of the time. By just having one rule which only has one of two results; it is just the opposite of uncertainty.

    For you pulling the trigger is an entry or an exit. I do neither; I am in the market all of the time. Anytime I change sides of he market, two things always happen for me: profits are taken and simultaneously, at the speed of light, I am on my way in another trde that is making money for me.

    Imagine you are in the market all day long and making money each tick that the price changes. Imagine you are in the market half the time and alternatively losing and winning and having a net of one point per contract for the day. That is only 50 points net a day if you have some margin at play. 2500 bucks a day? I don't think so; that is not any performance at all.

    A fifteen minute bar sitting there "naked" is what you look at? Good luck. Why even ask anyone to post their display? We know why and I appreciate the opportunity it has given me to lend a hand to others who are thinking about and are making money.

    By what time of day do you rack up your first 50 points??

    Are your stops inside the fifteen minute bars?? LOL.
     
    #38     Mar 9, 2008
  9. I think its a numbers game and you need to watch carefully every day to determine if the numbers are in your favor or not.

    So whatever the pattern you watch -- I believe you need to know what the odds are that the entry/exit will make you enough money in the aggregate to cover the amount of money you will lose when your stops get hit

    Then you need to trade it mechanically and repeatedly.


    If you are net negative after doing this - then its back to the drawing board to redo the math and the pattern


    I also suspect that even if you find a 'successful' pattern it might not last forever

    so make hay while you can
     
    #39     Mar 10, 2008

  10. The only way I ever know anything for sure, is after the fact. In trading you never know anything "for sure".
     
    #40     Mar 10, 2008