I'll echo that sentiment. As for CLF, he should have been in it in 2003 at $3 bucks. Of course, so should I have been. Woulda coulda shoulda. The difference is, I don't chase stocks in la la land.
I'll Third that statement! What up farmers! Apologies for the delay in getting back into touch. There was a strong North wind and it was difficult getting back to shore. Actualy I have a freind with a very sick dog. Let me get you quick up to date. It will make DB happy to know that we did a round trip on PWER and just sold out of frustration. I don't want to come back and have DB tell me later about today's large vol stick. A big foreign solar player said some milder t5han wanted stuff about solar in 2011 and whamo out to the shorting block. PWER is another highly shorted stock. You would think I would of learned my lesson with Crox! DB How many days are there in a week?Before you answer the correct answer is 5! that's right FIVE. Geeze. Still sitting on our new position in Crox but I'll boot this bastard DB if I have to. Don't worry. Under Armour Update*- UA hit $44 today. We got you all in at $35 area, I've just sent a sell request into the fund sort of a feeler- do you guys agree I might sell- let's see what they say- I'm inclined to take the $7k profit. PPO update*- Not looking good today but poked a strong print over $30. This can be bought for a next leg up which should be the last leg to $38 That's $8 folks for the next month. SPRD Update*. Boy another lovely chart if I do say so, once we get this through $13 area it's a fine ride all the way to near $20!!!! Oh how you are loving me on that one! $9.50 in! In fact all of these PPO, SPRD and UA were used against poor jack Hershey in our big ET contest... only MATK has failed to knock the cover off the ball.... you haters out there... ask yourselve's can you do that under pressure and with real money... I'll have to update that thread I've just been waiting for some big political news to hit regarding MATK, news which I hope hits the right way- UP. Then i will truly have proven genius status 4 for 4. There was a crazy ass IPO recently a Indian play named MMYT it stands for something really weird like Make Mine a Young Thing Trip! It was quite a day trade today but I don't want to tell you about stuff not published here first. I have no idea why but players are playing this name hard. They are going to push it higher. The stock that has my attention this week is GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE!!! Ayyyy. This is ANOTHER heavily shorted stock so keep that in mind. I am really interested in their tactic of buying up all their distributers, the latest being in Canada. Another is former fave DGIT. They took a big hit recently and I've been watching the dust settle for a week or so, worth watching. The stock market is having a weird moment it's bumping up against those HIGHS again WE WERE RIGHT DB!!!!! We have traced out that move we spoke about-- another 2% to come-- what then? Well that will be at an inflection point the 100 day average for the s&p and the June & August high area - all gather around 1116-1130. So volume will be looked at as we squirt through that and hopefully establish a new HIGHER trading range. As we head higher we have the various back bones behind us to poke through the over head resistance we have some tech and some banks and some heathcare, some oil and gas... just enough BROAD appeal here to make a little noise. I'm mapping a board of NEW portfolio ideas and you can draw from this pretty much like a Chinese menu. FMCN & CAVM- These are for a high risk account for someone who wants to make money right now. GMCR & FIRE- These are for moderate risk account for someone who likes to beat the market by at least 3X. UFS & FNSR- These are for low risk accounts for folks that want two winners by the end of the year plain and simple. IRWD & DGIT- This is for an eclectic account for someone who doesn't check in often. that Big Lebowski fella! The Dude this is pure Lebowski! Wake up one day, shake the newspapers off your chest and you're suddenly rich or being accused of being rich. Alright you have the names Let's Take This Market HIGHER! ~ stoney: $890 Mil Deal Puts A Lock On K-Cup Network INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) slipped 2% Tuesday, after the company said it would acquire Montreal-based Van Houtte Group for $890 million. The deal gives Green Mountain control of what Van Houtte claims is the largest coffee services network in North America, serving 71,000 workplaces in most major cities. It also brings into Green Mountain's fold what was reportedly the last significant licensee of Green Mountain's Keurig, K-cup single coffee serving systems. In the past 18 months, Green Mountain has snapped up other major licensees, including Tully's, Timothy's and, after a bidding war with rival Peet's Coffee & Tea (PEET), Diedrich Coffee. Green Mountain bought Keurig â which specializes in coffee machines based on prepackaged single servings â in May 2006. The company says it will offer $1.35 billion in new debt to finance the deal, which it expects to close before the end of the year. The company held a low, 12% debt-to-equity ratio at the end of last year. Van Houtte's 12-month sales through August were $433 million. Management expects the deal to be "neutral to slightly dilutive to its earnings per share in the first twelve months after closing and accretive thereafter," according to a press release. Green Mountain holds a best-possible EPS Rating of 99 with a powerful Relative Price Strength Rating of 95. It is the leader of the Wholesale-Food industry group, which ranked No. 83 in Tuesday's IBD. Green Mountain's sales and earnings growth slowed over the past two quarters, but remain at healthy levels. Analysts' consensus estimate sees an earnings increase of 82% in Q3 with a 62% gain in sales. Green Mountain has topped analysts' expectations seven of the past 11 quarters.
Hey buddy, glad you're back. Remember where we left off with CROX? You said some hedgies were buying and supporting the stock and I said the support is at the 144 m.a. support shelf. So, look at your chart now and plug in both the 144 sma and 144 ema. Then observe how CROX has been sitting on this for the 5 th day now. Right below is the 200-day sma. That's a support too. ---------------------- Now you're onto something called Blue Mountain? Wtf is that? On e of the coffee brands I buy here has that name. You want to run a bet on this one too?
hey Deadbeat- Actually when I left I said some hedgies told me a large motivated seller was in the market leaning on CROX they wouldn't go near it. I had already bought. My hope is when the seller is done the stk will go up. Blue Mtn is Green Mountain but I'm not going with that DD turned up some problems, I'm going with CAVIUM today CAVM so feel free to attack that if you wish. It's a semi play. ALSO, as a long time hold type stock I'm investigating scoreboard maker DAKTRONIKS (DAKT) a name I know well from the old days. They have $2 a share in cash pay a decent enough dividend and the long term chart shows this $10.00 area to be very important -- that happens to be the go zone for mutual funds too. Other than that I'm bumming I daytraded that stinking Indian IPO it went up $2 today... always swing trade folks... the other way is for losers. I've had a bath drawn for over an hour I must jump in. I'm running into a lot of flack about selling UA in various accounts. I am selling though. Good to be back DB. I do my first workout since June tomorrow and then I'm going to see if I can get some physical therapy visits out of my insurance co. In nov I go back to the neurologist. How bout my call on the market DB! You Gotta love it remember all the negative investors? Remember sinking to 10,000, Remember the two guys who said DOW 6,000 move was underway? This 10 year Bottoming pattern is wild isn't it? Right back to those old June/Aug highs. What's that they say you knock on a door a few times and eventually it just opens a bit? I'm in the crazy position today of perhaps selling and buying CF. I got one bit for my mom with a good cost basis bust it still looks good even at $99.00. A know a certain female member at ET who that will make very happy. She's not talking to me anymore. I'm sure she was a girl too. Anyhooo, I'm getting a bit testy at the fact that I've pretty much worked through my various watch lists and stks and I've only bought CAVM... at least we have last weeks FMCN & FNSR in place to do some heavy lifting over the remainder of this move. Time for a bath.~ stoney
Are you just some rich guy who got nothing better to do than throw money at stocks all day long and lose? There are people starving, living under bridges and in abandoned busses and cars all over america, many to be found under bridges in my hometown in santa Monica - they have nothing to eat, not even a fckin piddly sandwich and here you are just throwing your money around like its nothing. This new stock you gave me, CAVM. Have you lost your mind?
DB - HANG ON TO YOUR HAT! I just put $15,000 on DCTH DELCATH!!! I'm going over the waterfall..... A quick synopsis. This is one of my greatest plays ever $3.50 to $13.00. It was also my LONGEST HOLDING! in biotech... I really stock through with it for years. Finally the parting this year was hard to do but I removed my ego from the situation and realized the stock had run too far too fast. The stk topped out at $16.00 and I've been watching for stabilization ever since. I think I see a bit today and i was prompted by the article I'll drop here which has some smart sounding folks reminding me why I bought this infant bio tech in the first place. Usually 1000 shares would be the ticket but I broke one of my rules and bought 2,000 of a risky play. When you haunt like this often it's just at the end or beginning of a move-- at least i find that to be the case with me. Just when you think you have rolled through every watch stock one pops... In 2000 DCTH @ $7.50 it's up 7%. Rumor of a partnership. Yes CAVM. They help create band width and storage for all these new fangled networks operating all these 3G and 4G phones. The stock has some nice high price targets it was hit by the cisco news, over hit and it's just a semi play that should outperform the Naz from here out for a bit. OOOO my feet are tingling! BACK IN THE DELCATH GAME! DB I'm so sorry for the typo I don't think you're a deadbeat, I know it's just deadbroke. Must of been some Fraudian slip. Listen Do Yourself A favor Run and buy these last 5 stocks or so... you don't want to be left out. As to your rich guy question my past and histORy has been carefully documented here check my Welcome Back thread for details. Am I rich? No. In ten years will I be someone you want to party with? If the market holds up. Have I continually invested for over 25 years? Yes. Did I start out with near $200,000? Did that $200K get me all the way through Boston University and through many many years living in NYC never holding a real job? Yup. Did we have a good time during the tech explosion? Nope. How do I have steady income to live? I get a check monthly from a retail space I have an interest in 1/3 & I invest heavily and manage to make pretty good returns. Normally when the dust settles even in down years I had made around $100,000 - $140,000. year after year. The last few have been very tough. ~stoney
Ok lets sum up a bit for the older folks in the audience. 500 CAVM just under $27. 2000 DCTH $7.45 and I believe I just bought 1/2 the DAKT just over $10.00, 500 shares. My guy is getting a little short with me for all the ruffling of the portfolio. Was waiting on their analyst who's sick but I see Seeking Alpha just put out a piece on Daktroniks so I sent yet another email saying " I'm fine with buying half now " It's the type of inane comments that drives this poor hedge fund manager crazy. We had a dust up over the Under Armour sell too when he sold it at my request but just after a glowing report by his analyst yesterday... I was like you could of held it!!!!! Ayyyyy. Ok FROM END OF LAST WEEK-- FNSR $15.50 to Finisar Corporation (NasdaqGS: FNSR) Real Time: 17.10 1.02 (6.34%) 3:41PM EDT Not bad eh.... almost $2 grand for going to the beach! That looks to be going nicely.... FMCN briefly almost just missed hitting $22.00 today, give it another week Given to you last week at $19.90 There's another $2 grand. Here's the rub. I came on here again I gave away the trades again they worked again and I'm just not getting as many thank yous knuckle bumps or pats on the back. Instead I get DB harping on a bet he now realizes he lost... But hey that's splitting hairs... what if the bet had been 3 months he would of won. I get some cranky shorts and I just wish some old timers would say Thanks man I'm using that $4 grand you made me since last Thursday to buy my wife a something. Or this trip to Harbour Island is on you stoney! Well maybe if we can score with our latest batch CAVM, DCTH & DAKT. As for a stock I'm watching... I'd have to say it's this jenko solar JKS... I've had such bad luck with solar stocks except for 1st solar which is easy to trade. the small one's they just leave you in tears and from China to boot-- this solar stock for some reason is different than the others. I chart it. It's strong. Outside of that I've run through my current crop. I'll have to soon put this thread to bed and sew another batch of knee high in july ideas. I've got half an eye on Exact Sciences EXAS as well. I've never gone the exchange fund rout I hate them to their core but TBT the 2X short treasury index is interesting. I wish I knew more about 20 year plusUS bonds vs shorter maturities as to where to lean but a chart worth watching for a reversal. My main concern now is that AVNR wake up and begin a move. This will be THE oct story in biotech the word is just not getting around.~ stoney
Delcath discussed here along with some interesting stuff on rare earth minerals. As to this whole REE thing, I've left myself out of this action so far, as close as I've gotten is owning General Moley and looking at BW both do rare earth minerals but not the sexy ones that go into Apple products and electric batteries -- that smaller market is getting all the hype now and the minerals of BW & GMO are very quantifiable and have their cycles not particularly in favor now. GMO for instance into steel. Anyway read this it's from that old coot who used to be on Channel 13 I think. The interviewee sounds right on the mark in my view. Posted 9/14/2010 8:36 AM by 0 from Rukeyser.com in Investing, Stocks Although you should be leery of stock tips overheard at a cocktail party, there's value to information gathered from a long-standing network of research analysts and industry contacts. Marshall Berol and Malcolm Gissen, co-managers of Encompass (ENCPX), aren't afraid to apply a little elbow grease to the tips they glean from industry experts. The duo thoroughly vets these recommendations and will continue to add to positions, provided their investment theses remain intact. This strategy propelled Encompass to the top of Morningstar's World Stock category in 2009. Berol and Gissen spoke with us about their market outlook and favorite sectors. -- Benjamin Shepherd Courage of Conviction What's your read on the US economy? Gissen: The recovery has been much slower than most people anticipated, including us. There are many uncertainties hanging over the market right now: the election, income and estate tax policies, and whether the Republicans will gain control of Congress. The mortgage foreclosure issue still hasn't been resolved, and the housing situation doesn't look attractive, particularly until we see an improvement in unemployment. On the other hand, corporations are reporting decent earnings and sitting on enormous amounts of cash, though they're reluctant to hire. We expect this to change gradually. We look to add exposure to the superior growth prospects offered by emerging economies by focusing on companies that provide resources and consumer products to those markets. China is an obvious example of a market we like. We think India and Brazil will do well over the next several years, and Turkey is attractive. There are concerns about the Chinese real estate market and that GDP growth may fall from 10 percent to 8 percent. That's still very substantial growth, mostly because China has a very large population. India's the same sort of story. Berol: There's no question that it's a global economy and investment world these days. We look worldwide for companies that will fare well even in a slow economy. We're invested in companies doing oil and gas exploration and production in South America. We hold mining companies operating in South Africa, South America, the US, Canada, Mongolia and China. Your portfolio is extremely heavy on gold miners. What's your outlook for the sector? Gissen: The price of gold should head higher, though it's difficult to say exactly when gold will hit $1,500 an ounce. A variety of factors contribute to this trend: the economy, inflation worries, terrible municipal and federal debts, and the possibility of wars and terrorist attacks. These threats help boost the price of gold. And the easy gold has already been mined. Marshall and I have toured South American properties that contain enormous amounts of gold, so a handful of bonanza properties are left. But we've talked to a lot of mining executives who tell us how difficult it is to find and extract gold, so we think there will continue to be a lot of mergers and acquisitions in the sector. All of this suggests that gold prices will probably rise; we want to have significant exposure to gold. Berol: The price of gold should continue to rise, leading to questions about whether there's a bubble. We don't think so. Gold prices haven't gone parabolic. Sure, it's gone up over the last 10 years, from around $275 to $1,250. But gold has suffered corrections and consolidation along the way, and if you look at a chart, it's risen on a reasonably steady basis over that ten-year period. A bubble occurs when everybody regards gold exposure as a must-have, but many investors still dismiss gold's future. On any given day, the media will say that gold prices rose or fell because of the dollar or profit taking, but the role of supply and demand is not as well recognized as it should be. It is far more difficult, expensive and time consuming to find gold or any other commodity these days. And environmental and social concerns mean that extraction takes longer and is more costly. Why do health care names figure so prominently in your portfolio? Berol: The health care industry benefits from extremely favorable demographics. The population's getting older, there's more and better health care available, there are new drugs and procedures, and life expectancies are improving. These factors drive the need for health care. We like Teva Pharmaceutical Industries ( TEVA ), an Israeli company that manufactures and distributes generic drugs and a small portfolio of branded drugs worldwide. Teva is an outstanding company that has grown both organically and by acquisition and operates in a fundamentally strong industry. We also own Delcath Systems (NSDQ: DCHT), a drug delivery company working on a process for delivering chemotherapy drugs to a particular organ through profusion. This method delivers the drug in a more concentrated form but limits side effects. The product is currently in Phase III clinical trials, and we anticipate that the Food and Drug Administration and the EU will approve the treatment. We're looking to add to our position. Did the US health care reform scare you off from investing in the sector? Gissen: The companies we're looking at have enormous potential, and the products they bring to the market are so necessary that we believe they should do extraordinarily well. Generic drugs should see greater utilization, which will be extremely favorable for the firm. In the case of Delcath, one other crucial point is that the drug delivery system is believed to be effective with most organs and cancers. The process also prevents chemotherapy drugs from getting into the patient's blood, thereby lessening damage and side effects. The potential market for Delcath's product is enormous. Management is highly motivated to succeed and seems to be on the right path. Why does so much of your research focus on rare earth elements? Gissen: Many new applications for rare earth elements ( REE ) continue to be found, and these compounds feature prominently in green technologies. Hybrid cars use more than 20 pounds of REEs, and they're also used in windmill and solar installations. They're used in LED lighting, rechargeable batteries and many consumer electronics as well. Until recently, approximately 95 percent of the world's REEs came from China. The price of these elements has increased because the Chinese announced export reductions and cracked down on a number of illegal mines. We realized several years ago that demand for REEs would increase significantly and invested in Avalon Rare Metals (TSX: AVL; OTC: AVARF), a Canadian company that has a world-class resource in the Northwest Territories at Thor Lake. Management expects the play to enter production over the next several years. The company has solid financials and little debt. It's an attractive bet. Berol: We came across the rare earth elements several years ago. We come across a lot of these investments through conversations with the management teams at many companies, as well as a number of research analysts and other contacts. We do an awful lot of reading and talk to a lot of people. Malcolm and I co-manage the fund, but we also have two analysts who work with us on the fund and our private accounts. When an interesting idea comes to us, we follow up on it because we're inquisitive about global trends and how they'll affect the investment world. We saw that demand for and the use of REEs was growing and sought companies that would benefit from that growth. Dacha Capital (TSX: DAC, OTC: DCHAF) is another company we invested in to leverage rare earth metals. Dacha formed earlier this year and has purchased rare earth elements in China. The firm exports them under license and stores them outside of China in anticipation that prices will rise over the coming years. The company should profit from its inventory of these metals. The stock offers a way to play rare earth elements without being directly involved in their mining. What's your best piece of advice for the next year? Gissen: I would be very cautious about the economy. There's a lot of information available and tremendous efforts being made by sales teams to attract people to hot investment vehicles. Berol: Beware of the drive to fixed-income investments. Don't give up on equities. The statistics show heavy flows away from equities and into fixed-income mutual funds. That's likely to prove disadvantageous over the next several years. Interest rates are at extremely low levels, depending what you're looking at they could be at all-time low levels. There's only way for them to go: up. There are no ifs, ands or buts about that. When rates go up, bond prices will fall, fixed-income funds will drop in value, and total returns may be extremely disappointing.
Hey dude. Here's a high-5 and a back-slap for ya! I think you been doing a calm and cool job posting your thoughts and stock picks. I've looked at some of your suggestions and they seem pretty good. Some of these names I never heard of, so its been educational. How you are screening your picks is beyond me. As for not many people giving you notice (except maybe the bashers), it may just be because your posts don't lend themselves to "learning how to fish" rather than "accepting a fish" (pardon if you've thoroughly gone over your method in another thread, but many don't have access to calling hedge funds for info like you say you do). Still, it's good stuff, though just taking "black box" recommendations might not be to everyone's taste - even when they make money! It might be good if you could post charts on a few your stock-watch entries and exits. Easier to see sometimes in pics, like this. http://yfrog.com/5ndcthp http://yfrog.com/2dexasp Cheers