one time visit .... RE: CROX You lose the bet! And that's regardless where it goes from here onward. And what's worse, so nice of you to come back after the crash and say you were stopped out. Scammer! after the reams and reams of superior-holier-than-thou FUNDAMENTAL shit you gave me on CROX + the noticeable disdain about the technical view + the unmitigated scoffing at the Japanese candlesticks terms used to describe a possible top in CROX .... just reminding you that CROX is a company I'd never heard of, didn't know what they do or make or whatever, but as promised, a technician can still make a decent call and can blow away a fundamentalist any fckin time - a fundamentalist defined as a prick who never sees shit coming and then tries to cover up the blindness and causes huge losses for others.
Re: CROX Stoney on august 16: I am THINKING STRONGLY ABOUT CROX HERE! It's on support and ready to move higher coming off a SUPER earnings reports a while back. We need a stock that can GO UP and CROX is that stock. As I see it these are the names to play this week-- #1 - CROX and then deadbroke on august 17: (also provided a chart) Have you noticed the Dragonfly doji a the top, the high volume accompanying the dragonfly, followed by a hammer the next day, then the gapdown, then the smaller trendline break on Aug 13 and 16? A close below the larger trendline @ 11.24 might indicate the TOP is in. In any event investors should be totally gone if close < 10.04 and can't get back above 144 ma.
RE: CROX Stoney on august 17: Geeze DB you want to go against a stock pick of mine? You must be absolutely bonkers but be my guest. I can lay out a fundamental story that will out fly any butterfly. +++++++++++++++ reams of more shit SO YOU WANT TO DRAW A CROX IN THE SAND! Well, I do wish it were another of my names, I am going out on a bit of a limb here, but this really will be more of a statement on retail the consumer and back to school than an overall top in the market or what you perceive to see as a top in this stock?????( Channel reading clearly indicates a target of $20 1 yr and a ST target of $15) Let's agree to sell at $16.00 together in two weeks! ~ stoney deadbroke on august 18: Yeah, a CROX in the sand it is, Stoney. Have you noticed all the threads at ET about Fundamentals versus Technicals? Its a never ending battle and thus far nothing is resolved. I have the requirements to take up the TA side because I know absolutely zip about the fundamentals of CROX. I mean, really zip. And if I win, we'll do another just to prove its not a fluke. And then another. OK?
RE: CROX stoney on august 17: You should know this first- Crocs ( CROX - news - people ): 52-week high of $14.00. The producer of plastic clogs forecast third-quarter net income of $0.22 a share, which exceeds average analyst estimates of $0.15 a share, helping shares of the underlying stock higher. The firm posted second-quarter earnings of $0.37 a share after the closing bell yesterday, which was substantially higher than the average consensus view for its earnings of $0.22 a share. Some options traders initiated near-term bullish bets on the shoe maker by buying calls and selling puts in the August contract. It looks like investors sold approximately 1,000 put options at the August $12 strike for an average premium of $0.14 each. These puts may have originally been purchased to hedge an earnings disappointment. Bulls hoping shares will continue to appreciate picked up about 1,000 now in-the-money calls at the August $13 strike for an average premium of $0.72 a-pop. Call buyers make money if CROX shares trade above the average breakeven price of $13.72 through August expiration. Finally, it looks like other investors expect Crocsâ shares to go no higher than $14.00 by expiration day. Roughly 1,500 calls were sold at the August $14 strike for an average premium of $0.25 apiece. Traders could be closing out previously established long call positions, or may be selling into the rally to pocket inflated premium on out-of-the-money calls. If the latter is true, call sellers keep the full $0.25 premium per contract as long as the price of the underlying stock fails to rally above $14.00 at expiration. Post-earnings the overall reading of options implied volatility on CROX plunged 28.1% to 52.26%. >> Held to $14 until options ex?? Or convincing break up from $13.72 which attracts more buying? It's a win win DB....Then what?~si deadbroke on august 17: Actually between 16.84 and 18.4 is a possible fibo target area ... IF she survives the current trendline break and can rally. So this is a wait and see.
RE: CROX stoney on august 17 Did I mention they are using a new substance for the shoes which you can't tell by the fit but which LOWERS cost? I guess I should add First, our revenue growth was broad bases, all markets and all sales channels reflecting the renewed strength of the brand globally! Second, the performance of our customer direct channel reflects solid growth in both â both through expansion and same store comp sales. As an example, same store comp sales for Q2 in the U.S. market was 8%. Third, our operating margins in all regions reflect the efforts of our very talented global operations team to evolve our business model while continuing to develop our unique in-season auto replenishment system. And fourth, our SG&A cost aligned to our business model. We increased our marketing spend in the quarter by $7 million to $15.5 million to drive brand awareness, new product introductions and channel sales with our key wholesale customers globally. We are striving to develop a balanced business globally and are working to minimize the seasonality of our product portfolio. Revenue increased by 31% to $228 million over an adjusted revenue of $174 million recorded in the second quarter of 2009, which excludes $23.7 million in previously impaired product sales reported last year at this time. Our international sales accounted for 61% of total revenue and we continue to believe this is a key strategic strength for Crocs. We are encouraged with the development of the BRIC and Middle East markets. We are very pleased with the resurgence of our wholesale business channel. We have invested significant management time and efforts to methodically rebuild our wholesale business, especially in the U.S. market. Sales of Crocs products with our major retails partners and department stores, family channels, sporting goods, and with our independents are all up consistently through Q2 and into early Q3. We hear customers are returning to retailers actively looking for the brand. Over the past two years, we have seen significant diversification of our product portfolio and collection, all building on our core design fundamentals of comfort, casual fun and colorful. Today, we have over 250 models of shoes across a diverse range of sales channels. While our core products are still up 21% of our overall sales, we continue to bring relevant and exciting new products to market. Which brings me to my kid-- I scoffed at the Crocs when he had a Yankee pair they seemed flimsy, but he's got a really cool looking shark pair now with the face of a shark and see the possibilities here are pretty endless. You know fads are real interesting in investing. I can remember buying an golf swing indoor pre IPO thingy that wiped me out and an in line skating stock or two! Well, here time is our friend. Crox has peaked fallen and comeback as a stable shoe for kids... they still like em, costs are under control now and growth in the international and on the wqeb is strong. Not a lot of storefronts a young retail idea still. Similar in many ways to Under Armour which I recentltly purchased as well.~si Now DB by geographic region. Sales in the Americas rose 23% to $104.8 million from $85.85 million. Asia sale increased 11% to $88.6 million compared to $80 million and sales in Europe increased 7% to $34.6 million versus $32.2 million a year ago. For Q2 2010, 61% of our sales came from outside the United States. Each of these are in the MILLIONS DB- this is better than most semi conductor companies. 70% of our second half wholesale business is pre-booked.~si DB I know you know times are tough. But what's great is as kids need some shoes this is an affordable luxury for the youngster don't you think? How nice to have this many sales and be able to RAISE prices in such an environment and STILL be a damn cheap pair of shoes.... Our average selling price for the second quarter 2010 increased 12%, or $1.96 to $17.76 from $15.80 one year ago. Yea under $20 bucks... hello Brazil! Did I mention the secret work your calf's while you walk shoe to be unveiled in 2011! If you wanted to be nit picky all you can say bad about Crox is their margins can't possibly be as high next qtr and there was for the second quarter, an effective tax rate was 17% versus guidance of 30%. The lower tax rate resulted in a $0.06 per diluted share favorable impact versus guidance.... Of course most folks won't dig for that! It looks like a huge beat and that's the way I like it! Shoe stocks are in fashion!!! DB what you got again? A Daily Butterfly Suture With A Hammer??? ADBS w/H? Do hammers sometimes miss nails? And hit thumbs.... ~stoney
Well DB I don't know about that at all. the bet was for 3 weeks and your lot was sold then for a 60 cent gain. Unfortunately my lot went off yesterday for a 75 cent loss. As to our argument over tech vs fundi it's always fascinating to me to analyze this. Crox is one of the most heavily shorted stks they were taken down on a downgrade of another shoe company Sketchers and some mild remarks my Sussquana who last I heard was a hairy animal who walks like a man down south and in the mountains. I don't know the answer. Kudus to you and your butterfly pattern but had the Sketchers downgrade never happened nor would the short induced slide here so it was a fundamental part of investing-- downgrade -- that got the ball rolling. I bought back in this morning. The company said again earnings I think we all know what they are going to be -Crocs (CROX) Reiterates Q310 Outlook September 10, 2010 8:07 AM EDT Crocs, Inc. (Nasdaq: CROX) reiterates Q310 outlook ahead of their presentation at the Credit Suisse 1st Annual Small & Mid Cap Conference in Boston. The company still expects Q3 revs of $205 million and an EPS of $0.22 - $0.24. Nothing has changed that I can tell, it's just a Green Mountain sort of stock... I thought you were on vacation! Damn. ~stoney
deadbroke on august 18: Here's my take on CROX: Close out the LONG right away = take full profits and go to sidelines
Re: CROX Here's exactly what happened then ... posted today, sept. 10 ..... 3 weeks after the post to take Long profits and go to sidelines .... Uploaded with ImageShack.us
All data in the previous series of posts to be found here ... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=203151
I've met several of these dusters at various times, often at the train station. Inside the dusters there were fundamentalists. Inside the fundamentalists were my bullets. In my book they ought to have a much higher mortality rate given the fact that they send scores of individuals to the poorhouse in droves. Doesn't bother them one bit; they sleep like babies. ---- end of visit --- adios moron