Trafalgar asks people who they think the people they know are voting for as part of their methodology. They overestimated the support for Trump by a little last time. They called Trump winning in MI and PA when nobody else had. I think there might be a bias effecting their polling in places like WI, MI, and PA this time where people think everybody is voting Trump, because they don't want to get fooled again. I'm not really a believer in their methodology.