What happens if consumer debt > M1 money supply?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by dividend, Jul 3, 2007.

  1. sjfan

    sjfan

    No. Not at all. What you need is $500,000 worth of economic growth. GDP shouldn't be flat - it should grow over time. That growth is not intrinsic to the money supply. It's real income. That real income is what pays the debt (which, you should not forget, is asset on someone's book).

    If, instead, debt is entirely shouldered by money supply increase, you get inflation - not a desirable outcome. Successful monetary policy should counter such a trend.
     
    #21     Jul 5, 2007
  2. KS96

    KS96

    #22     Jul 5, 2007
  3. sjfan

    sjfan

    Seriously, can all you idiots who don't have any idea how economics and finance actually works leave your bullshit in the other thread? There's nothing in that video (or the other thread) that can't be fully explained by a first year macroeconomic textbook.
     
    #23     Jul 5, 2007
  4. I think what happens when consumer debt eclipses money supply is, they celebrate by offering you a new card, lower late fees. But that's just a guess.:D
     
    #24     Jul 5, 2007
  5. currently, it take $4 of debt to produce $1 of GDP....I know of no economic system that can sustain that forever

    If I can service the debt and not default, I can live a long time just fine....but if bankers panic and pull credit away, I'm in a jam....
     
    #25     Jul 5, 2007
  6. sjfan

    sjfan

    I would very much like to see where you got that figure from - I'm not saying that it's not true, but it seems like a very certain answer to a difficult question. Moreover, whereas the statement "there's $4 of debt per $1 of GDP" is a simple accounting ratio, "... to produce..." is a casuation statement. I'm not so sure that such a statement can reasonably be made.
     
    #26     Jul 5, 2007
  7. Throughout the 1970s, for every dollar of increase in productive GDP—which we here call real GDP—there was a $4.25 increase in debt; throughout the 1990s, for every dollar of increase in real GDP, there was a $13.90 increase in debt. However, in the 2001-03 period, when real GDP, even in its statistically massaged form, stagnated while debt grew hyperbolically, each dollar of increment in real GDP required a $63.51 increase in debt. The representation goes "off the charts": It defines a singularity, where the system breaks down.

    This signifies something else: The U.S. economy's current indebtedness can never be paid off out of the real productive portion of the economy.

    Source: Executive Intelligence Review, 2004
     
    #27     Jul 5, 2007
  8. backing out services in foreign countries credited to US companies makes the ratio less but not by much
     
    #28     Jul 5, 2007
  9. sjfan

    sjfan

    ... you managed to figure out causation by dividing change in level (debt) by change in flow (gdp)? You managed to figure out causation? We are officially done.
     
    #29     Jul 5, 2007
  10. i think the point is that debt service will come from money creation and not productivity

    something not lost on currency and gold/silver players
     
    #30     Jul 5, 2007