What happened with CL ? Big move down on Fri 05-04 from about 102.5 to about 97.5. So a move of about 5% down in one day ... What was the event/news that caused it ?
Non farm payroll was week. Also delayed reaction to the Wednesday eia figure which showed a 20 year high in oil inventory.
Pretty much...you can cite jobs data etc. But this is the run of the mill response, there isn't any specific news attached to this move. When a move happens and no on can give you a good reason for its occurrence, that move usually has some legs
Or, from a technical perspective, you have this: It was a ridiculous multi-month triangle that faked out to the upside and finally broke to the downside. Now, we're in the middle of another consolidation - god knows how long this is going to last before we get the next impulse.
Not picking on the poster, just want to point out that this is a perfect example of why TA is a load of crap. It's only good for telling you what happened, not for telling you what will happen.
There is obviously some Iran/political risk in the price of oil. It could be that in addition to inventories the sanctions and behind the scenes conversations are producing an easing of attitudes. That said, trade price not fantasy!
Hi Clubber Lang: You are 100% correct. TA is a risk control tool - not a forecasting tool. You can use it to make probability projections but that's all it is - probability projections. It's major use is as a risk control tool.