After trainining and working with probably 10,000 active traders, Don reached the conclusion that chart based trading has no edge and is a waste of time in the real markets. Why other folks still don't "get" this is a mystery. surf
No mystery at all. Others "got" what you can't get! Got it? I got it 40 years ago. I and others daily enjoy getting the fruits of what we got. We had the ability and put in the required study and work to get it. Granted though, some don't have what it takes to get it. Got it?
Good to see someone could make chart art work. However, Arch Crawford, the financial astrologer, ran the most accurate market letter for years, ranked by groups that rank such things--- does this mean that everyone should use astrology? Survivorship bias and personal anecdotal evidence should not be used to support any method/thesis. surf
Conviction that's based on personal experience and knowledge is reason enough to support the validity of a method. But the lack of ability or effort is no reason to negate that at which others have been successful.
Surf, can you go into a bit more detail on this? What's chart-based trading? I think it's very important to define exactly what we're referring to when making these broad, sweeping statements. While we're at it, let's also define what non-chart-based trading is...
Most (not all) of the chart bashers here at ET actually do use charts...many admit such. The issue for them is that they also state they don't use it to make trade decisions...its just for illustration purposes only. I just find it disturbingly strange that they subscribe to data vendors or some free charting service. Some even are on record here to post their support, defend other "chart users" via the facade those folks use charts with "something else" (e.g. fundamentals, secret sauce, voodoo or whatever). The silly thing is that they mainly debate with those that use charts with "something else"...folks that are not hypocrites or have no shame to admit they open up a chart to see how the markets doing, make some kind'uv an analysis or see the price action of what they're trading is doing at the moment. The real issue is that they just don't like those they're debating with while not pointing any fingers at those "chart users" that they do like. I've tested this theory about a dozen times with different bashers via inviting them to go to the biggest TA thread here at ET called the "ACD Method" and do the same bashing... Not one has done it since the birth of that thread. Anyways, the biggest ET basher of charts as a tool is a subscriber of eSignal...try to understand that.
Darn good question because I've met many "chart users" that truly believe they are not using TA or charts. Also, I've met people that plot a single price moving average (e.g. 50ma) and say they are not using TA or its just for illustration purposes only. Thus, not for trade decisions (short term or long term). Heck, there are people here at ET that believe "chart use" and "TA use" are NOT the same. Confusing huh ??? I still remember an interview on CNBC many years ago with an analyst that stated they make their decisions off of good research and not charts. Funny thing is that you can see folks in the background from his office with charts on their screens. Obviously there is some kind of belief its ok to open charts to see what's going on in the markets but doing such doesn't qualify someone as using charts to make trade decisions. P.S. Most folks that use the phrase "chart based trading" are folks that are talking about placing their trades ON the chart instead of using something like the DOM to place trades or a single trade execution window (buy/sell button).
Traders fail for two principal reasons. They don't put in the considerable time and effort to develop the cognition to understand price discovery in real time and the considerable time and effort to develop strategies that give them an edge based on what they see. Most will not get past this stage. Most edges are small and require consistent, disciplined application of one's edge, without which an edge disappears. This second part is where the rubber meets the road and those who skim through the first part are certainly doomed and those who put in the technical work and fail to apply an edge with focus, patience, discipline and courage are also doomed. We have many people who come to such as ET with inflated ego's who have not mastered this and have the need to convince themselves that no one can. They are laughable to the traders, not doing themselves any good as failure provides opportunity for personal growth to which they prefer a blind eye and they discourage that minority who may be able to do what it takes.