What happened to all that needing a "90/90 day" talk?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by canadian_dude, Aug 19, 2003.

  1. Notice how these so called "economics experts" are really good at making lots of predictions, no matter how wild they are. And they are really good at pointing out all the times they were right in the past. But when it comes to analyzing just how wrong they were on so many of their past predictions, you never hear from them on those issues again.

    Case in point: Back in the fall of 2002, as the Nasdaq 100 fell below 800 for a couple days, all you heard about from those "CNBC type" analysts was how the bear market would not be over until we got at least one 90/90 day (i.e. when 90% of total sales are on the downside and 90% of total price points movements are losses). This would mean there would finally be CAPITULATION, and the market would have bottomed. Until that happened, and there was this "magical" capitulation they were all looking for, the bear market would continue.

    Notice how none of these analysts is talking about needing 90/90 days and capitulation anymore? What happened to all that talk? I thought this capitulation was so important, its all they talked about for months.

    Here we are, 10 months later, and the Nasdaq 100 is 63% higher. Of course nobody can be certain October 2002 was the bottom, but it sure looks like it will be. And even if it wasn't, nobody is calling for capitulation anymore. But of course none of those analysts are going to mention the fact they are basically still waiting on an event that never occurred.

    How convenient that they just "forgot about that call". Just remember that next time you hear one of them bragging how their latest call from last month is up 30% already. I can do that too, all I have to do is make lots of predictions, and some of them are bound to be correct. Then I will just brag about the correct ones, and forget about my wrong predictions.

    But back to the 90/90 point. I personally think what happened is that instead of getting that one day of capitulation at the end that they were all looking for, we got 30 months of "mini-capitulations". After all, the Nasdaq 100 lost almost 80% of its value on the way down, without ever having a day where the markets "crashed" to the extent they did in 1987. That's the problem with making predictions based on past crashes, history never repeats itself exactly the same way.
  2. ges


    When everybody and their uncle was talking about the 90/90, I just figured, well...the market won't accomodate them.

    They are probably hoping:

    1) everybody will just forget all about their predictions


    2) We'll get another down leg in this bear market and they can say...see we told you so, not there yet.

  3. maxpi


    I had forgotten about that. I was seriously looking for that and then after awhile it became evident it was not going to happen so I, like a zillion others forgot about it. I mismanaged my 401k somewhat due to that idiot now that I think about it.

    These prognosticators are in the same league as conspiracy theorists in my thinking.

  4. m22au


    Of course they're not calling for 90/90 days now ... because 90/90 days do not come in the days immediately following a 60% rise in the Naz 100.

    However, having said that, those who believe that October 2002 was not the bottom could still expect 90/90 days after a number of months of declines from here.

    It isn't necessarily the end of the bear market just because of a 60% plus rise in the Naz 100, and 10 months since the most recent bottom.
  5. A human mind sees only what it wants to see...

    We curve-fit what we percieve based on perspective....
  6. All I am saying is that if they believed so strongly in it in October 2002, they should still be mentioning it now. They should be out there stating that they don't believe October 2002 was the bottom, that a new lower bottom is still coming, and that then we will still get that 90/90 day.

    But they won't do that. These analysts only state the obvious at any given moment, and change their opinions as often as the wind blows, to suit their needs at that given time.