I've seen many useless meteorologist, useless psychologist, useless bureaucrats, useless politicians, useless car manufacturers, and certainly A LOT of useless analysts and worthless traders. Even the crew at the McDonald's next to my place is awfully slow and... useless... So what's the point about economists? Just because 80% of them are not that good means the profession is useless? We could say that about MANY professions. Most of economists' jobs aren't about forecasting anyway, it's about understanding. And for that mather all of the current financial theory about market expectations and the like come from... economics... (Nobel price winner Robert E. Lucas and his theory of rational expectations to be exact). Truth is, many of them predicted about this crisis for a long time. But in the real world, those that speak out loud against the consensus view aren't the ones gettings the big fat jobs with lot of media coverage. People just don't want to hear the truth, they want to hear what will confort them. Now try to predict the outcome of a random variable that is influenced by the choices of 6 billion people, the choices of past generation behind them, the availability of scarces ressources that we don't yet know everything about and even influenced by the climate and natural disasters. Now if you can correctly do THAT, you have the right to brag about economists.
random variables are not influenced. they are random. influence implies causality, not just correlation.
...not good in robbing banks FDIC economist charged with trying to rob bank 5 hours ago KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) â An economist on leave from the federal agency that insures bank deposits has been charged with the April 11 attempted robbery of a Kansas City-area bank. Jeff Walser said he had a bomb in his briefcase and demanded money at the Bank of America branch in Independence, but did not take $41,000 brought to him by an employee, according to an indictment filed Tuesday. Walser, 51, surrendered to police and was being held in federal custody, the U.S. attorney's office said. Walser told police that he has health problems and was "alone, discouraged and tired of working" and that his plan was to be arrested and not tell police he required thrice-weekly dialysis treatments to survive. "I wanted to be arrested and I wanted to die," he is quoted as saying. "But after my arrest, I did not have the will to kill myself." Walser worked for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Kansas City office and was on leave at the time of the robbery, agency spokesman Andrew Gray said. Information from: The Kansas City Star, http://www.kcstar.com
One thing your statement glaringly points out is how divorced macro-economics is from micro-economics today. Its likely the original poster is speaking about the 'uselessness' of macro-economics as generally practiced. I think they are wrong - - - but they have been looking for answers in the wrong place. The Austrian school united the micro and macro. It also pointed out the fallacy of an over reliance on the apparent 'scientific method' of excessive mathematical calculation as a way to predict human action driven by human motivations. The Keynesians haven't been particulary successful in predicting anything. (Though betting against them is a pretty good wager.) The Keynesians have been very successful in providing the 'intelluctual' goobledegook used to b.s. the public while providing advantage to those that hire them - - - some big business (and in particular private banking interests), politicians, and bureaucrats - - - all living off the producers. You make a living by producing something "the economic means" or by stealing from others, "the political means". - - - - If youre not a Keynesian, you have no reason to be insulted. If you are one . . . you deserve it. (I may be wrong, but from what you wrote earlier - - I doubt you buy much Keynesian macro b.s. at all. )
How come (other than some form of political correctness in a Keynesian world) you "don't like them much" ? The Austrians IMO correctly pointed out the role of the expansion & contraction of fiat money by central banks as the source of excessive booms & busts. - - -
The whole intellectual establishment is here to feed us shit and keep us in the dark, we're mushrooms.. whether ANY of them realize it is an ever growing question in my thinking... you can't sue them for malpractice evidently.. I've said it a few times here, a student can take a logical argument that gets an F in Philosophy 101 down the hall to ANY other department and it will be the underpinning for a generation's entire world view. You want circular reasoning, go to the Anthropology and Geology rooms, you want willynilly assignment of cause and effect, try the Medical or Econ departments... oddly enough Psychologists are not doing that bad of a job and they are not considered to be hard science ...
Austrians are great economists. They should put their materials in traditional textbooks if their want their ideas to spread out. The writing of human action and other books i have read are boring and extremely time consuming (19th century writing). Virtually not practical for college purposes. the point i hate about Austrians is that they combine economics with their libertarian stupid stuff. That makes them look bad as hell and lose all credibility. They emphasize on logic. Well take this logic "THEY ARE EXTREMISTS". I lived under communism and I know for sure that the far right and the far left end up in the same point. Its like a circle. PEACE.