New Housing Starts (normally) Building Permit Applications Leading Economic Indicators Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Stock Market Treasuy Bonds There are others. Different sectors and locals will recover at different rates. Take Michigan, for instance. If I lived in Michigan I would move.
LEADING economic indicators are actually LAGGING indicators. PS: I did not comment on your other economic signals, was laughing to much. PSS: we love it in Michigan, great in summertime, very few "HOT" days and even fewer days with a lot of humidity. In the winter you can always be a "SNOWBIRD" and pack some freight and head to Florida with your 40 foot trailer and get in the left lane and stay there to piss off the locals. Truck drivers need a commercial license, but any clown with a regular license can drag a big ass trailer behind a small car and cause all kinds of havoc on the highway.
Just spent some time in Michigan this weekend. I prefer people like yourself to avoid the state all together. And please stay away from the northern part too. Trust me, nothing good up there As for the indicators, tops and bottoms, look for local newspapers and press to start publishing fearful pieces and the FED to start providing positive guidance. The inverse applies though.
When the new sunspot cycle starts up like it did just a week ago, that precedes the upturn by a year or more.
Find yourself some confidence/sentiment indicators as well. Even though the fed is f-ing up all of the normal credit relationships, it would still be helpful to watch spreads as well .