If by pro we mean trading other people's money, even if they are friends and family, then in 2008 she was already doing that, in the 700-800K range if I recall correctly...
Again its all based on interviews and hearsay , that's not a proof , you need a verified audited track record by a third party period , other than that we don't have any proof if she even have made a dime in her whole life , that's how the industry works .
Is she still doing this kind of output for this year? Is there also a chance for use to have her as a signal provider?
Marty, I've been thinking about this a bit recently. If you ran a short downside put book (any any format you choose: hedged, outright, spreaded, skew, whatever) under the one constraint that you can't lose more than 10% on a 10% shock, how much pnl can you reasonably make? I get 5-7%ish: Underperforming historical long-only performance.
We should ask sle for a confirmation of your estimate... Personally, my guide has always been LJM. If you look at the history of their returns (http://www.ljmpartners.com/performance-history), it's pretty useful. Specifically, if we use the constraint that you have specified, it rules out both their "Aggressive" and "Moderately Aggressive" strategies, which leaves you with the "Preservation & Growth" as the only option. That seems to have produced a historical return of 8.6% per annum, so your estimate isn't that far off. Obviously, 8.6% still beats Spooz and all the caveats apply.
You misunderstood something. The 800K was her AUM around 2008. And no, HF managers can't provide signals, and most likely you don't have portfolio margin anyway.
Maybe I am wrong in having this view, but I consider the LJM guys to be pretty smart. They outperformed the SPTR by about 1%/year. That's pretty good. Too lazy to calculate if their sharpe is in line with the SPX over the same period, but their sharpe is inline with the long run average of the SPX.
Yeah, I agree, they appear to be reasonably smart and, more importantly, straightforward... I don't imagine, though, that there's some sort of super special secret sauce that they offer that a clever long-only shop couldn't reproduce, if they wanted to. The other question, of course, is the mandates.