What does Karen the Supertrader and her results say about volatility? Oversold?

Discussion in 'Options' started by shooter, Feb 16, 2014.

  1. 1245

    1245

    There are CTAs with over $200m selling naked options. I have money with one.

    1245
     
    #191     Mar 18, 2014
  2. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Why do you disagree?
     
    #192     Mar 18, 2014
  3. She is not registered. I think that is the point. why would you pay 2 & 20 to sell wings when you can do it yourself?
     
    #193     Mar 18, 2014
  4. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    She is now.
     
    #194     Mar 18, 2014
  5. Fantastic. I can't wait for the bump in vola when she blows up.
     
    #195     Mar 18, 2014
  6. 1245

    1245

    Some people have jobs or don't understand how to do it. It's not done randomly by those that are successful at it.

    1245
     
    #196     Mar 18, 2014
  7. Ansbacher is a cautionary tale. We will revisit when he has another 40% DD.
     
    #197     Mar 18, 2014
  8. 1245

    1245

    You are expecting a 40% draw down or down day
     
    #198     Mar 18, 2014
  9. Dolemite

    Dolemite

    Just curious, when you say selling downside spreads, are you referring to otm put verticals? I am trying to figure out what you mean by rolling it up to the call side.

    Thanks!
     
    #199     Mar 18, 2014
  10. TskTsk

    TskTsk

    Yes, bull put spreads...if it goes down to my short option in the spread i'll either take the hit or roll it into a bear call spread to the upside, getting enough credit to try and make back losses. if it continues down i'm good, if it goes up and hits my bull call spread I'll roll it to a bull put spread on the downside again. Usually this never happens... I don't let it go ITM, always roll on touch and don't let total losses get more than 100% of the margin on the spread, in which case I'll abandon it and move on. No issues.

    Basically have access to all mkts in IB (Dax, EOE, FTSE, CAC, nikkei blabla) so distribute the money as much as possible, accross term structure and time as well. The vol risk premia & persistent contango is well documented on nearly all mkts so it's all good. And yes I'm fully aware that global mkts go into heavy correlation on crashes.

    There's probably plenty of better ways to trade short vol than this, but honestly I'm not good with strctures. I know calendars on index have backvol which can kill you due to nature of term structure & it's roll-down, same issue with diagonals, wide butterflies / straddle is an option but must be deltahedged IMO which I hate because of unpredictable R/R and P&L profiles, naked straddle have too much margin, a complete condor has upside risk which I dont like in indices.

    Also utilized, ATM ratio calendars (gamma neutral) are cool for hedging vol on spesific maturities, almost like a VIX contract, little gamma/theta change w/ UL change...and of course VIX which I use a lot, I have VIX tick-data back to 2004 and the profit-curve from selling front-month VIX if VIX<1st month and buying if VIX>1st month updated on a 30-minute basis is absolutely amazing. Basically I tried replicating the study posted previously but using intraday updates, which gives a super-nice equity curve. Unsurprisingly, it's sensitive to transaction costs, although it still has good edge.

    I'm still a noob though and have no formal education in any of this. I rely on historical data like an idiot and try my best to limit risk with my high school math...so I dont trade money I cant afford to lose, if I blew out tomorrow I wouldn't jump out any windows, theres enough for me to fall back on. Like alcohol, cocaine and black tar heroin to drown my sorrows...
     
    #200     Mar 18, 2014