I think the US Department of Justice is going to launch an antitrust suit and force Facebook to break up. The suit probably won't get filed before the election. And it will take well over a year, maybe even more than two years, before there is any real outcome. But the stock will probably tumble if/when a suit is filed. Facebook might decide to break up on its own (e.g., some sort of spinoff) in order to stave off regulatory action. If that happens, it could cause the stock to rise, and FB shareholders would get stock in the new company... BMK
So the trading strategy is very straightforward: You gotta get to know somebody over at the Department of Justice, so they can tip you off a couple days before the antitrust lawsuit is announced, and that way you can short the stock before the announcement. Okay, wait a minute... wouldn't that be illegal?