I am interested in your thoughts about all the information available out there on internet and in great books and softwares today. Do you think this will make it a lot more difficult to trade and be profitable. What does it really do to the overall market and trading in general? It must make the average trader a lot better doesn't it? Some sites and books ¨give away¨ facts that would have taken a long time figuring out for yourself. Am I thinking wrong here and what is your opinion...? Regards atrader
The facts are 70-80 years old, probably even older. I have a friend, he is a really smart guy. After making and giving back 4 milion bucks he still has no clue. He reads a lot, is very well informed and has been "investing" for 13 years. In his opinion it's better to go to Las Vegas. Today I am sure he is stuck with this opinion for the rest of his life. You know why? Because he is a lawyer and he has got it all figured out despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
The reality is that it doesn't matter how much knowledge a trader accumulates in this business. The most overwhelming factor that determines one's success or failure is personal qualities, namely emotion and the gravity of fear and greed. It is these factors that causes a trader to blow their stop management, enter into trades that in a normal frame of mind they wouldn't, and other catastrophic actions. So to sum up the original query, the proliferation of information does not make it harder to profit as a trader. Because so many people unfit for trading entered into the business over the past couple of years and got their heads handed to them, it gave the impression that it's harder to succeed. In reality, it just illustrated that there were a whole lot of people who had no business being active traders in the first place due to not possessing the appropriate personal traits.
Zboy hit it right on. I'm successful as a trader (I'd love to be more successful, but I think +75% so far this year qualifies me as successful enough), but I could teach 50 people just what im trading, including exact entry and exit points and stops, and what I'm looking for. Unless the person is an exact machine, he won't make money. Heck, now almost 2/3 of my trades are of the "gut feel" type anyway. He'll violate my stops, or something else. He may do much better, but most likely, he'll do worse. It's a factor of emotions. It took me almost 3 years to get my emotions in check. I've developed a basic rutine that I have followed every day now. I get up at 7:45, catch up on the news, review my plays for the day, at 8, I'll trade if there is premarket news that I think can be tradable (usually there isn't). In that case, I just sit there, talk to my trading buddies, just slowly get into the zone. I play snood and minesweeper (which I think are very good to get your brain in tune for trading, even if boring). Just from habit, I always trade much better when wearing just boxers, slippers and a shirt. When they finally open the thing, I'll take a few scalps. I like to be small, just a few hundred shares (im usually only looking for halves as I play the opening gaps up/down) As I get my timing in tune and get a feel for the day, I slowly up my size til im swinging the 2-5k+ lots that are normal for me. I dont' think enough people really pay attention to getting into their groove. Once I get to that point, nothing can distract me. Once my slippers caught fire while trading, and I didn't notice the pain at all. I only noticed when the smoke obscured my screen. I still have a scar on my foot from melting plastic. THe point is that I was so focused, that nothing could get me out of my "trading zone." Zboy is right. I think a lot of people can't reach that point of being at total peace with the market and just flowing (as opposed to crashing as bruce lee puts it). There are some days where I just can't get my groove together. If I blow more than 2k, I'm done for the day usually, unless I come back and try later. If a trader goes out there to shoot the lights out, or is too rigid, he's gonna fail. I only think that certain people are truely good traders, and it's 30% a factor of intelligence, and 70% a factor of personality types. You can be really brilliant, and analyze a company/stock pattern/trend to death and still loose money when you implement the trade. You have to be ready to admit that you're wrong, and bail fast. You also have to be ready to trust your hunch about something and get in fast. Most people are too afraid of loosing. THey analyze the pattern, and everything about it. They then miss the move, or enter too late. The hardest trades to take are those that seem the wrongest. When something is screaming up, you have to be with the mm's and shorting the hell out of it, just b/c it seems so wrong. I don't know a lot of people who can bring themselves to do that and take the momenary pain of establishing a good cost basis. I know I still can't. I'm gonna stop rambling here. I hope this makes some sense, if not, I'm just in agreement with zboy. What was the question again?
This thread reminded me of something I read recently: "To achieve success in either life or the market, individuals must act before they know enough ... For instance, investors who hesitate may catch only the last 20% of a bull move and thus assume a disproportionate share of risk. The need to be sure you are making the right choice actually increases the risk."
Praetorian2 hit on another reason why many won't make it... Like him, it also took me 3 year to get emotions in check. Most people dont have the patience or the will to trade for 3 years and not be succesful. Especially after blowing a bunch of money at the start. There are a few traders who are pure naturals and trade well right from the get go. But they are very rare. I'd say it would take a qualified person about 3 years to trade effectively. Most people come into the game wanting instant results... They might get results quick, but they will give them back just as quick.