What do you think about my strategy?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by drasfs, Jun 29, 2008.

  1. drasfs


    Need some help with my strategy.

    This is my strategy:

    1 I scalp, usually liquidating my position within 10 min, sometime less than that, sometimes more, but it depends on how good my entry was.

    2 i trade from 1 to 15min charts

    4 When deciding entry i look at:

    Bollinger bands: the price must have reached upper or lower level of the bollinger bands

    The price must have increased by several pips very fast, for instance 10 pips new high in the 10 min time horizon, and increased for instance by 5 pips within 20 seconds. When this happens, the price has usually moved too fast, and the price want to retrace back a bit.

    The price must be far away from the moving average. If i want to sell, the price must be a bit over the moving average, indicating that the price is overbought.

    I do lines, to determine support and resistance levels(and look at pivot points from websites). I dont usually base my entry on this, but this is helpful for deciding when to take profits and when to quit, when the price goes in the wrong direction. Sometimes i base my entry on this, for instance buy when the price hits a support level, though it is very rare that this will occur simultaneously with the bollinger band and moving averages requirements. If it does, it is a highly probability trade.

    Take profit: i dont have any rules, but usually, it is between 3 and 5 pips profit. I take my profit based on: when i believe that the price wont go more in my direction in the 10 min time horizon. For instance: if the price is 14, and it quickly goes up to 20 in 15 seconds, i sell at 20, and want it to go back to 15, which shouldnt take too long. For it to go down to 10, takes too long, and less likely, because the price had so much momentum to increase from 14 to 20 so fast, so it might want to head even higher in the medium term.

    Stop loss: say that the price goes 5 pip against my way, i dont liquidate, i look for an oppurtinity so that im breakeven. However, if im minus 5 pip, and the price goes 5 pip against me yet again, so that im 10 pip minus, im looking for the price to increase 5 pip, and then liquidate for a 5 pip loss. Thats my strategy on this. So my stop loss could in practise, be infinetely high, if im very unlucky.

    Another thing: if the price increases too much, and it is likely that it want to decrease, but doesnt do that, i believe that there are many buyers in the market, and that the price might have much momentum. In that case, i might quit prematurely.

    My biggest gripe with this strategy, is how to determine stop losses. This strategy is bound to: Many small winners, and few big losses.
  2. sounds too subjective. need to develop concrete rules on a stop loss and exit.
  3. drasfs


    well the thing is that i cant really set any rules on it, but rather do an ongoing analysis whether of the price, whether it will go more up and down.

    From my experience, i take my profits too early, missing out on many pips.
  4. there was a real good thread by a trader named no_pm_please. his strat, while not precisely like yours, had many similar aspects. you might enjoy reading it, and, he had very specific parameters for entry/exit. i can't remember the thread title, but i suspect it would be easy to find w/ search...

    ok, i think this is it

  5. There you go then, that's the problem, what can you hope to achieve with a risk:reward like that?
  6. drasfs,

    "Bollinger bands: the price must have reached upper or lower level of the bollinger bands"
    "The price must be far away from the moving average"

    The price will be far away from ma if it has reached the bbands.

    "My biggest gripe with this strategy, is how to determine stop losses. This strategy is bound to: Many small winners, and few big losses."

    I am sorry but by your own words you do not have a useful strategy

  7. drasfs


    He is not scalping like me, so i wonder whether i could still apply some of the rules. I read 20 pages, but still couldnt figure out whether his strategy was profitable?
  8. drasfs, only you can answer that imo.

    No_pm liked to see price above the channel, and divergence in the oscillator. i think he waited for a reversal bar to enter, but i could be mistaken. he also watched the adx for an over-extended condition. i thought it was a creative strat. he claimed it made $$.. i suppose you could implement any part you liked.
  9. agreed. really ignoring long standing clearly defined trading rules.
  10. Ditch the minute charts. I dont use anything under a 2hr now, and learn to use ansrews pitch forks. :)
    #10     Jun 30, 2008