What do you see grain prices in the next 12 months

Yeah, unfortunately so.

 

Dec E Corn has got some solid overhead resistance at the 400 level. That's the sweet spot.

 

Yeah I would agree, I'm spread v oats but if I wasn't I wouldn't be seling corn down here I'd wait til we saw the 4's again more than likely.

 

How tough is it to put an oat spread on (slippage, effort, etc.)??

 

From a seasonal perspective, corn and soybean prices tend to trend down this time of year until harvest, unless we get a drought.

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/c.html

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/s.html

The large commercial interests, like General Mills are relatively long corn, wheat and soybeans, but tend to buy when prices are declining. Commercial buying is most helpful to signal a buy when price is in an uptrend. Currently, corn, wheat and beans are trending down.

Corn, wheat and soybeans are at strong resistance and all 3 are overbought on the daily charts with dojis on the corn and bean charts, suggesting a possible short-term decline.

Historically, corn, wheat and DBA are very cheap and seem like a good investment. The question is how confident you are in calling the bottom.

Fundamentally, commodities are going to soar as inflation manifests and accelerates, so DBA seems like a good investment long term.

Although the above signals are a bit mixed, DBA is historically cheap and is making higher lows and higher highs. The smart money (commercial interests) are long corn, wheat and beans. And everyone seems to think food prices are going to soar due to increased demand from China and a falling dollar. Sugar is also part of DBA and is in a strong up-trend.

In the long run, DBA looks like a good buy, but you never know about the short term. Another pullback to support at about $24 or a breakout above $28.87 would certainly be buy signals to consider.

 

DrPepper, thanks for the info and comments regarding seasonal factor and DBA. Good post.

Pricewise, DBA chart seems to have a breakaway gap two days ago but pulled back slightly today. Let’s see if it can hold on to the current level in the coming days. If not, then we may have another opportunity to pick up the shares at a better price later.

Please post your comments and update when you have a chance.