I can honestly say that I don't know.. I am trying to figure it out but I just can't seem to anser that question honestly.. This is my thought pattern on a day like yesterday as the day goes on: Early in morning: wait for proper signal.. if market turns up you will have plenty of time to jump on board later and take a few points when the time is right.. Mid Morning: Went long at 9:45 est. and made a 1 pt. profit in ER.. only to bail a little early I think after this .. my mind was convinced the market was making the turn.. I've attached the chart of my trades..
being 'convinced' and following your rules are two different things. you ACTED upon a feeling, an emotion, a thought, outside your rules. If you HAD acted upon your rules, you could in NO way feel bad about your losses (though over time your losses would show you that you're doing something wrong). remove all discretion from your system of trading. you have no business using discretion if you are breaking rules. go through past data and record how your system performed. BY HAND. don't fudge the numbers. test in real time as well. If you don't see your strategy producing a notable verifiable edge after 100 trades, dump it or try some different money management. IF you simply use a 2to1 risk reward ratio, YOU WILL at the very least break even over time. to be able to follow your rules, you must have confidence in those rules. to have confidence in those rules you must have EVIDENCE that those rules produce a positive expectancy. if you argue with my advice, you're just going to be shooting yourself in the foot.... and stick with the trend for heaven's sake.
Hey, Thanks for the Book! I am sorry that I can't give any advice. I just do not know you, Flashboy. If we could trade together for a week, Perhaps we could help each other. I think it is difficult here in an anonymous Internet Forum to post anything to help you, without knowing you first. All these posts sound good, and the traders that post them may be profitabe, who knows.. There is something that I have observed. This is preliminary, Flashboy, but your style should not include gambling. You have the mentality to be much more. Remember you must first lose, before you can appreciate winning. The Emotion of Winning is just as hard as managing the emotion of losing. Michael B.
yes martys i know. if you have a 45% win rate, 2to1 will make you profitable commissions and slippage these days shouldn't be a problem for you. if they are, then you're trading too much.
how many times a year do you post the same question? You have written the same thing about 3 times I can recall. What message does that give? bonne chance! ICE p.s. psych help isn't the answer... it's all within US! The answer(s), that is.
about 4-5 months ago you said the same EXACT thing... that you always look at things from a contrarian viewpoint, always try to "think" what will happen (i.e. the market will turn). No? There is THE issue... so meditate for a week until you figure out why you do that. It is not an esoteric answer! It is an issue I think all traders deal with to some extent... thinking and figuring out... too much.... and not enough observing and patient managing of positions in an effort to take what the market gives. These markets in particular require more patience and more willpower than the past, and in my view are more difficult. Witness this week's large reversal with no follow-through. A real suck-out! However if you look at the SPX or NDX chart... ask yourself why you didn't short ONE contract of each at the beginning of the down movement... and hold until today's lows. I don't mean that sarcastically, but it is a good question as to why some get into the markets to tick-f*ck every day and then VOILA in hindsight your first ES/NQ short ( or first long) was the best trade of the year. In other words, why didnt you see the big picture? Dig ? I look at the same matters myself all the time seeking growth. The interesting part is trading is a close microcosm of life and how we handle things there as well; only it happens faster... and you get your "report card" much sooner!