funny. Try code for coed. as you see in the skeleton, there are four types of trends. for me I call them Set A, B, C and set D. A is to c B is c to a to c C is c to a to b to c (normal three move trend ending in an FTT.) D is drift. Drift means the set C trade gets one or more additional a to b stuffed into the geometric channel of price. The bulding blocks of legs between turns are volume OOE's Turns replace time in markets. Turns are events. The four types of trends have different event sequences. So deductive detectives build their cases by thinking about doing drills to flesh out the facts. Marketsurfers is an ET sketch. He says since 2003 he hasn't seen a successful TA trader. This does not mean he saw successful TA traders before 2003. I was asked about scoring in the last couple of days (here in Tucson face to face). I flipped to a chart of three columns where the frequency doubled in each column. The least significant variable had the highest frequency. This is revealing. Anyone can always know they know where they are in a cycle. To prove this we look for three exceptions: marketsurfer, Covel and Pekelo. So a quick QED for scoring. Actually, we can look at volume and see peaks and troughs. So we code. P1? For all trends we begin with P1. This is TA consistency. we notice by 55 years of trading that trends begin on the bar after a trend ended. Again we find one exception: the A band. the A band ending is also the exact bar of the beginning of the next trend. This is not experimentally determined. But when I say why; then no one gets to be a detective. So you code in the assignment of P1 as an OR circuit with a few inputs. You cannot have a P1 on the second smaller volume of an internal. Look at the pink first bars of all skeleton event OOE's. Get the bar numbers and look at the list of the bars. Now you can make a coed. Making a coed is sensual until you correct the spelling to code. As has been said all of my charts are just pink rays. This means all trend segments are assigned a P1 as their beginning. The following bar is given three tests if it is not an internals smaller bar on price. 1. repeat. fro P1 to repeat the code is bar.0 > bar.1. we count backwards to ID bars. 2. if 1. fails, then test for names in reverse chron. this can't happen for P1. 3. IF 1 and 3 fail, then go to the NEXT name in the OOE. Say all three fail. This means you are not a logically minded person and you cannot trade using TA. ..... unless you have used up all the next's and you are at the logical end of a trend. all trends end just like the kitty you put in the oven after he fell through the ice. you give him a teaspoon of gasoline too. When you take him out of the oven he will keep running until ..... he is out of gas. Trends end when they run out of parts or when an End Effect intercedes. here is one from yesterday: P1, P1, T1, P2, T2P, P2, not value, P1, T2P, P2F, and P3P on bar 78. This was preceded by a c to a to b to a to b. above is the volume bars of the leg after turn b and before the ending c turn on bar 78. It was a 12 point per contract profit segment. If you use 5 contracts, then 12 points is 3,000 dollars. Lets say you are one of the ET champion posters over 7 years. you have worked up to more and more contracts. If you didn't stop trading TA (like marketsurfer did), then you may be trading 10 contracts. So you made 6,000 dollars. Well that 12 points was preceded by 21.3 points net. so for 5 contracts add over 12,000 dollars and for 10 contracts add over 24,000 dollars. Do not post your P&L because it will wreck the P&L thread. I have to adjust my day's work since I pay 8K a day in commish. But I do have 10 times the 10 contract income also. There are 13 PP End Effects. The three P1's with acceleration did not show up in the bars I listed but four P1's did show up. There were other things going on as well. This would have been a PP1 end effect. same for three P2's. same for three T2P's. Codes for three P's with acceleration are not difficult to do. you do need to "qualify" them though. In coding you make up "gates "and "kills" to qualify. So we stepped out of the world of "quants" right soon. cooking gooses is what quants do for big money clients. Quants are not allowed to make 20% a year, year after year. Only TA based people are permitted to do that. Lets do three T1's. you get a T1. Your horns perk up. Next bar is also a T1. now you must code so you get a PP6 only when the following bar is a T1, no exceptions. hooray. we have done 4 of the PP's. lets do PP3 and PP2. these are betweens. A T1 between two consecutive P1's is a PP3. A P2 between two consecuctive T1's is a PP2. lets do PP4 and PP5. These are one bar EE's. you have to have an OB. Remember OB's have two points (a price term). For the first value you do the test procedure and see what you get. To get the second name to just write down the "next" name in the OOE. PP4 is a P1 then T1. PP5 is a P2 then a T2P. PP5a is a T2P then a T2F. You can see how this filters some people away from SCT trading. But ending a day by adding 12 points to 21 points already bagged makes compounding profit really worth it. So lets say I want to have a working crew. I make a plan to have four guys and each trades four instruments on five minute bars using an ATS that is coded. Sixteen times the daily take and costs are 128,000 in commisions. I'll use coeds. the job is to watch the ATS annotate the chart and watch the accounts do legs of trades. If the legs are not showing on the accounts (by calulator), then the coed's account is out of gas for the day and the coed goes flat on her desk. After RTH the ATS and the accounts are checked. Signals have to get to the accounts from the ATS. I can't hire Pekelo or marketsurfer, they can't read accounts as they print. Can coeds do this. Yes, I already know this.
Too bad weâre talking about code, the coed is better able to hold my attention... The trends in Set A, C, and D make perfect sense and we often see these on the ES. (Life would be much easier if all the trends were Set C, but if it were that easy I guess then the coeds would have less use for us.) As I currently understand your description of these trends, I cannot envision the Set B trend. âcâ to âaâ to âcâ is, as I understand it, the following turns: Dom to Dom, Dom to non dom, and Dom to Dom. How can the trend segment just after the apex at âaâ and just before the apex at the second âcâ be both non dom and Dom at the same time? Iâve attached a crude picture of my question. Would you consider posting a drawing of the ideal looking Set B trend and/or elaborating on Set B to help me clear my confusion? -river
Jack, I dont see how some of these sequences work. Maybe it is that I dont understnad how the repeats happen, but how is it possible to have a P1 between the things that follow it in the sequence? Or a P2 between the thing that preceds it? P1, P1, T1, P2, T2P, P2, not value, P1, T2P, P2F, and P3P: Same confusion here, how can we go from P2 back to P1 in the same fractal? T2P=T2Peak? T2F=T2Fail? P2F=P2Fail? PPx=ParticularParticipantx?
=============== Abc; Thanks for the question; need much more info to give a ''good/best answer''[Like time frame, stock symbol or commodity, much more info....] Similar to a 1 year silver candlechart; short term bearish, but all the long term trends are UP.Not a good short, if its silver, since so many trends are up======================================== Wisdom is profitable to direct.
Some people do and some people do not. I post annotated charts and logs. I would say that most people do not even look at them. I did post some inventions and trading approaches as one pagers. It is possible to do work to learn how the system of the market's operation works. So I did that. My notes happen to include building a vocabulary that describes the system of the market's operation. It looks like you are not interested in my viewpoint. Nor is about anyone else. this situation as applied to any given person's "do it yourself" is about the same for each of these types of people. Congratulations on your observation. It is a good generalization about any trader who has a system of trading.
Thanks for the incisive question. you are correct in everything you state. My conclusion is that the transition from a to c must have an unobservable transition from ND to D that is not definable as a "b" turn. so I have been looking at the adjacent volume bar combos and, in particular, the corresponding price "permissions in that mathematical region. As it turns out, during this train of variying conditions, I feel that the herd of participants really have a wide spectrum of views. Since the "democracy" of market voting is the more wealthy, only the minority of the wealthy is the place to look. this is a consequence of the minority of participants controlling the sentiment of the market. Also you will see the "fourth turn is missing, as well. It would be the ND to ND turn. Deductively i has to be missing for trends to be able to fail. The only set B trade to day was on bars 55 to 57 to 59. what set the scene was the OB after a P2 had shut down a possible future T1 following a first point equivalent of P1. the two point equivalents became P1 to P2 instead of a usual P1 to T1 outside bar. Bars 57 and 59 were both P1 to T1 OB's Thus the whole climate of this Set B trade was the wild swings found in OB's. The participants were really on the move during this period from bar 55 to bar 59. For archival purposes I do record the close values on events. The c to a to c greatest value is keeping the trader prepare for the future opportunities by always using proper sentiment.
If you are into coding systems like SQL or Haskell, your puzzlement would have been laid to rest. The RDBMS concept is still mostly foreign to the financial industry. In most algebras there are types of variables. To optimize making money it is bet to work with a leading variable of price. The algebra of base 10 cannot be used in market monitoring and analysis. People have figured that out, broadly speaking. A lot of peole also become aware that time is not a variable in markets. But, for example, the three of you (yourself, Gann and Elliot) have become aware of sequences. Each of you may also name the parts of market operations. I am one of the people who understands Gann and Elliot and I can perform their approaches quite skillfully. This means I can tade with those who use either or both of their approaches. A person who uses these could probably use Fibs on stochastics just like Red uses multiple TF charts less conveniently. "seeing" in your terms means "Perceive" is neuro biologist's terms. sequences are better and better perceived as when the brain has a spectrum of long term memory to match the sensing of images. this organized kind of long term memory is called "inference". because I spent 55 years extracting money from markets, my mind is fairly well organized and i have moved quite a distance away from feelings of anxiety, fear and anger which are common to those entrapped in the Conventional Wisdom. Seeing how sequences work is done by having all the algebraic equations complete. I had to construct a system that was complete. So I did. I store my equations in libraries. It turns out I cannot use all my equations on my display because if I do it crashes by being overloaded. the provider's programmers understand this and the owner and his next in command are getting suspicious about what they sell for a price. Here is how a repeat happens. In a trend that is handlesd by an ATS. the program keeps a memory of what has happened in the trend. It is called the "Whatsup" type memory. It talks like a black box. for this memory to work effectively and eficiently it has to have space in it for all the "sequencing" of a trend. Let take a P2. For a repeat on a P2 to happen there has to be a P1 and a T1 and a P2 in the memory. the memory locates by information parcels. It poorly numbers the pareel by counting into history using digits as locators. the Present is digit 0 and it is separated from other information by a dot. A dot looks like a period in a language. The present at dot 0 is being checked for a repeat. the code takes the ATS to dot 1 to find out what is there. for the set of the sequence of a tend in a given variable. this time, there is bad news; a W is found. W means the prior information parcel was not used. W has an equation that explains this facet. for you to check for a repeat all it means is it goes back to look for a set element that is not W and is a P2. I am explaining a P2 repeat so we both know that the ATS will find the P2 most recent and not a W. we have it. now we get the volume value of the P2. we have it. we plug it into the ATA's P2 equation in the proper place (it is called immediately prior or prior P2). The present volume value has to be > or = to the P2 volume value that was plugged in. If so the answer the ATS gets is an algebraic value named "True". It could be "false". this algebra is nice because it only has a base of 2. The digits are assigned a lot of different opposites. P2 is dumped into the Whatsup slot for the Present known as dot 0. Now for your next sentence. A P1 is allowed to appear whenever the P1 equation says it can. So for me, I just make sure all the equations are exactly set up for how the system of the market's operation works. Almost no one believes this is possible and they prove it to all of us by saying they do not have a complete set of equations. Getting all the equations begins with making a list of all of the elements in the system. There are 56. Second, you must place these elements in an order or you will have trouble later. So I started with the four types of trends. I divided the four types into two classes: incomplete and complete. I named the incomplete portion FBO's. The two complete sets I named normal and drift. the next effort was dealing with the dependent variable to be sure no measurements were ever made when it is required to not measure. this is named "suppression". Any ATS without suppression will not work. the "conventional wisdom" name for ATS's that do not have suppression is called "the market changed so my system does not work anymore". The first person to invent this expression was Eve's spouse (In the vacuum tube era of computers.) Now, for the list details. An initial P means "Peak" in volume. A peak is not a HH since that is indeterminent in the Present. My peaks are determinent. The initial T stands for "trough" a substitute for valley. It is not a LL since the LL is indeterminent in the Present. Latter P or T stand for "pass" or "true". Latter F's are "fail" or "false" A double PP means pre primary. A double E means End Effect. I learned to make money in about 20 days. I had mainframes available all the time so I tried to get them to work. Fortunately, using an 024 0r026 card punch was too time consuming and chads didn't display anything in piles. I made a blank chart instead and I built my mind unconsciously pencilling bars on charts. I saved the lat page of the ESJ so I could plot new stocks rapidly and trade them if they passed my tests. I was different so I profiled as an "insider trader" at the beginning (When the SEC got their computers working) The SCT system looks like an insider trader and it takes the full offer of the market. the market is a system. It has 56 elements. It is so simple to extract the full offer of the market. My mind is fully differentiated and it is exactly like driivng a car or skiiing a double black diamond trail. I have a 12 cylinder BMW and I ski on X-37's from Head (Not avaialable to the public).
Think back to First Form. You see on the white board an expression. It says Y = mx + b. You giggled and could not understand it. Then you saw Y + ax^2 + bx + c on the white board. It was longer and funnier to you. Columbus knew that he was using a power series of the base 10 in 1492. the 1 and 4 and 9 and 2 were shorthand coeffiients of the power series of the Queen's system of numeration. Dudes who are cool traders don't know shit from shineola. You didn't learn anything about algebra or numbers. so no one can talk to you and have you understand. You plug in Y to find x, right? Hey Zeus. No you don't. It is a one way street. you plug in x to get Y instead. Y and x are variables in a thing called Algebra. You get the answer to the DEPENDENT variable by plugging in the value in the INDEPENDENT variable. Those other thingy's are called coefficients and constants. When you ride a tricyle, you have speed or maybe velocity. If your little GF is 25 cracks down the sidewalk and you can pedal at 12 cracks a minute (the m), then you plug in 25 to find out how what time (Y) you will get to her little pussy if you start at noon (put 1200 in the b place). If you fall off your tricycle a lot you have to use the quadratic equation to find out the time. lets say you make it to 5th Form and you are doing calculus. You see Y = F(t). There are two variables again and you have the training wheels off your bicycle. your GF gave you a speedometer because she likes how fast you can pump. She wants you to pump longer, however. She doesn't want the needle to go too high. When you see Y + F (t) you probably read it as "Why can't I F.... longer?" In trading, the masters figured out the complete Hypothesis Set (HS)and its Parametric Measure (PM). They deduced it scientifically about the time DOW sidetracked the financial Industry with the DOW theory. So everybody bought the WSJ. To write a Hypothesis,you have to write it according to the independent and dependent variable. To be as good as DOW you have to know Arithematic. So you never saw a hypothesis. They are about the same as a hypopotomouse.
Anybody else notice that the real Jack Hershey died a long time ago...? http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/Fr...John-R-Hershey-Jack&pid=158274188#fbLoggedOut Not to mention the fact that he still hasn't answered the original question... Really simple... What is the DEPENDANT and INDEPENDANT variable in the market...!? Not in mathematics...