Look at the three situations below. Which one of these situations looks most bearish to you? Which looks most bullish? Which looks like price is about to chop around and not go anywhere? Which looks like a reversal might be expected? Which looks like confirmation that the downtrend will continue?
Is it not all the same chart just with volume slightly progressed? Seems like too small of an increment to change sentiment based off this timeframe chart don't you think?
Assume each chart is close of the most recent bar. I want to know what people think various volume levels during that sort of price means. We're in a bit of a downtrend and volume spikes on a down bar, or volume is average, or volume has decreased. Those are constant time bars so the only difference is volume.
Based on nothing but the volume of the most recent closed bar, "B" is the "most" bearish, IN MY OPINION. "A" has the POSSIBILITY of being some sort of climax or washout. Progressive volume increase to a very high (relative) level. "C" meets initial rules for a POSSIBLE "no supply" situation according to my spontaneous visual usage of VSA. "B" with "average" although declining volume is the most bearish. IMO. I spent about 10 seconds looking at all three charts once I knew what you were asking. Trade On!
You are incorrect. Too bad. the charts are identical, fortunately. Only the last independent variable bar is different. Therefore, everything to be known for making money is known. 10 to 100 milliseconds gives the separate but equal answer to each of the three cases. In case A the short trend will continue In case B the short trend will have two more events and turn long on the second event. In case C the turn occurred one bar prior to the last bar and the last bar is assigned WAIT and P1 will be assigned in the future. So lets wrap up all the threads the OP has started to deal with his Gulliver's Travels. His macro thread on W's and M's drew a response he found "interesting". the response was off the mark when it suggest comparing a to b where there was a fractal shift. It WAS interesting and could have been VERY interesting if the response had suggested an interfractal comparison where "like link were being compared. BUT ..... the OP has come a long way in a short time. he has covered all the bases in the wrong manner. Except one. I liked his reply where he swuggested completing a questionaire he designed to get answers in detail from an overall terrific systemmic response he recieived. He is nudging his responsibilitied by shifting them to his helpers. so this post wraps his quest once and for all and makes him an expert trader in one fell swoop. He sees patterns and they are macro patterns. He never looks at adjacent parts. Until this pic he posted. He gave three of the four possiblilities in his examples. C+ is a good grade for the OP. Lets go to A+ Lets blow it wide open for PA trading. Look at a peak, an M and a H&S. there are three turns possible. One of them ends trends. If you have that turn you have a trend end. A peak IS a "c" turn. The legs are both dominant legs one after another. Look hard at the M. Look at the legs to see the turn names. they go dominant, non dominant, dominant, dominant. An M has four legs. It also has three turns. It is a "normal" trend that ends and a new trend begins. how nice. how pleasant and how systematic. Turn "a" to turn "b" to turn "c". We all know the "c" turn is the reversal turn for making money. Single peak is a "c" turn. for M's the "c" turn is the last turn. making bacon. And now the head and shoulders. 6 legs. This is a drift trend. as the OP told his helper: "fill in the form I gave to you so I can understand the help you are giving me." the legs are dominant, non dominant, dominant, non dominant, dominant, dominant. Better count the terms to be sure. Now count the turns. you see n -1 known as five. Can you envission a H&S becoming flat and having a name (_________) Please fill in the blank for the OP. We see the names of the turns as: "a", "b", "a", "b", AND ......"c". count and see if there are five. This is the "drift trend" case. everything works just fine and smoothly because of thinking only about "adjacent" parts. All market operation is tied up with one bow. Relative DataBase Management Systems. (RDBMS). the market opens, an entry on the open, A hold until the "c" turn where the OP reverses. He is taking profits and adding contracts with the profits. the OP is noting turns. He sees an 'a' turn and holds through it. then he sees a "b" turn and holds through it. etc... This is tough. after each turn he has to spend time deciding if the leg is either dominant or non dominant. he doesn't do math he says. Can he see two ends of a bar? So far he cannot. but lets say he did read the books he threw away and he does remember someone said to look at a bar you have to look at its parts. can he remember a bar has an open, high, low and a close? no not at this point. can the OP look at a bar soon? Yes Yes Yes. can he have enough retention to look at two bars? no, he can't. could he step up from triple AA to the big leagues? No he can't he will train in another sport instead. What if his children could look at two bars and tell him the RDBMS answer? he knows they can because they can see verbs and predicates. and they can add and multiply. Can these children see two bars and say a long is HH and HL's? Can they look at two bars and say a short is LL's and LH's? In 6 months of daily looking at two bars is it possible to see long and short pairs of bars. there are four types of trends. Two are FBO's and two are complete (normal and drifters) A "c" to "c" is a set A FBO type. Another FBO is the c to a to c. Attached is yesterday all done to a "t". Two arrows jumped around. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3811653 I made the "c"'s easy to find by using a thick border on the box. I know bars are used instead of the lines the OP uses.
I am posting two filled in sheets I gave the OP about the first time I replied to him. the sheet just shows the events of the day and how entering and reversing works tick by tick. Under the date there are a few prices stated in points, decimal ticks. the open is 65.2 which means 65 points and two ticks. It is an arithmetic shorthand used "in the olden days". when and event occurs where there is no reversal, a value is not entered. When a "c" turn occurs a reversal is made. I'm sure everyone knows the "c' turn is the Black scholes as modified by derman when he was at BTL's Murray Hill financial research center. Kelly worked there too. I had left the BTL Whippany location long before that and whippany is where the ATT "reliability" testing was done. If I were interviewing I would ask about Geometry and how many proofs were done during the first year of Geometry. I wolud also mention oak trees and acorns. I would hope the person knew what the sprouted acorn said to his parental trunks. (Gee, I'm uh tree") Page 7 is attached. Page 7a follows. the OP has not started to fill in the blank form I gave him.
here is page 7a. for convenience I named the files so they fit right into the majorities filling system. On page two you see the totals are done in two steps. I do points and ticks independently. then I transfer the pile of ticks I can turn into ticks to the point side of the ledger. I subtract losses from gains and get the net, when this is required. So basically reading the summary shows the day began with a Setc normal trend trade long. A similar short followed. Notice this is a range type situation. The range is traversed twice at about 6 or 7 points a pop. entry, reverse, reverse. the "a" and "b' turns were just held through to follow the rule of just reversing on "c" turns. All Black Scholes wit the Derman refinement. to get a job with me, we discuss proofs that are deductively concluded. I need to know that you know Black Scholes is crap and so was Derman. you need to prove to me you can make twice the ATR in 21 bars in the am open. If I am paying 250 a quarter (in advance) I need comfort, support and confidence from you. I am not ranting I am just saying 250 is a negligible cost to me and you have to do geomtry proofs deductively and NOT inductively. so the day unfolded with a Set B FBO after the secone reversal. this is important to see that the market Cannot go long. we make 1 lousy point on this FBO. so we know the day's slower pace is going to be a drifting situation. the first drift is only 12 points ending at bar 60 which is 75% of the day and the range expaneded south. to come close to ending the day we drift back up another 4 to 5 points by bar 75. If a long drift ends at 75, the rest of the day is setting up the short carry over into tomorrow. so we are prepared. As a new hire you are trading on four futures indexes. say 100 contrcts each. you do a few reversals on each and make about the same bucks on each. 35 times 50 times 100 is the take on the ES. this 175 K is done one three more markets. 700K total by one unskilled laborer. your pay is over 2500 a day and you are making me 700K. we have deal and you will get a milliion dollar bonus as well if you can fll in the chart I gave you.
So did I answer the Q's before they were asked and removed? How does drift become chop? Answer. the market PACE (volume) goes into midday PACE. In relative database managementsystems using just PA, this PA is called a lateral. At the fourth bar of the lateral you do a retro naming of the lateral bars where each bar has a consecutive OOE name AND you use the FAILSAFE two tools: BM, REV and BO with T1. for everyone's convenience the lateral bars are numbered starting with bar 4 in big numerals above the bar. funny symbols stop the numerals. One caveat. TN finds it not profitable enough to degap bar to bar. Pick up all the math in TN and dump it into a degapped platform. you may notice all the events in price for turns come from OOE's in volume. there are four rays and one box needed to do volume. Can a child do four rays and one box? Can you watch a child do it for 6 months and catch on?