Yeah, but that thesis in its barest form is one of direction, however it may have been arrived at. You can dress it up fancy or you can leave it bare. Regardless, it'll often be wrong. As for skew, that depends on how you ride it, doesn't it? Yes, I know he didn't build scenarios based on charts. But the price (action) ultimately decided the trade, if not at the outset then certainly as the trade progressed. So...price.
I don't know? Where did you say day-traders don't use charts doh! Yes you are talking hedge funds to - day-traders. What is the point - with the apples to oranges comparison?
okay I think we are getting a bit lost in communication. It sounds like your prior post said (correctly) that George Soros would analyze macro and then figure out how various macro scenarios would impact price (direction). However this post makes it seem like he (incorrectly) is looking at price action to figure out macro scenarios. This is what you do in macro: “Yield curve is steepening” —> check economic data or fedspeak, conduct some analysis —> agree with steepening or disagree *roughly* in stock markets: “Stock is trading at x” —> check estimate data, upcoming catalysts (earnings), new information, conduct analysis of impact to price (earnings waterfall) —> go long or short
Is it fair to compare it to a coin flip? Coin flip I either win or lose a fixed amount. Speculating and taking advantage of money management and risk control, I am able to control the amounts that I win or lose. I don't have to lose all my money when I lose and if things are going my way I can let my winning trades run.
it’s a mathematical property. If you can generate excess returns then it means you’re not taking a coin flip. But if I were to give you the price of a stock at any given time how accurate would you be at guessing the next print?
After a quick look at a chart I could make a decision as to whether I would be interested in speculating. If I was interested I would attempt to limit my downside. I quess that's part of the arguement of TA, it's not really a coin flip.