I also doubt that the catalyst for the move was the realtor number (altho the news folks would love for there to be a correlation - what else would they do??) While there are some tendencies for early April mkt bullishness, there were also a number of factors on the charts last night that indicated a likely bull pop for the am trading....
So when the housing numbers came out and the Dow added 60 points in 5 minutes that was just a coincidence? What were the factors on last night's chart?
The futures were up big as well Last night, CNBC showed the S&P and Nasdaq futures being up 7 points and the Dow up 30
The yen was sold heavily overnight and it has a direct correlation to the sp 500. The home sales data doesnt mean anything. I'm giving the HF an F for creativity. We just go back and put the same trades back on.
I tend to find that when you're on the right side of the market, 'coincidences' frequently support your position. Overnite reduction in Iran/GB tensions supporting the drop in CL was another of these 'coincidences' ... IIRC - Larry Livingston observed this concept a long time ago ... To save time, I'll only list some of the more significant observations from the Q's (altho, I form my bias/decisions from a review of most of the indexes and leading stocks). Bigger picture: the reaction move off the 2nd leg of the double bottom (& 200dma) from 3/14-3/21 produced an overbought condition as momentum diminished. The p/b from 3/22-3/29 alleviated this condition. Daily chart: - 1st test of strong sup on 3/29 @ ~43.3 was very successful (producing a long wick) - the next 2 day's successful tests each produced a higher low (reinforcing the strength of this sup level & bear's inability to break thru) 60 min: - strong support appeared with the last 2 day's tests of the 43.3 level as well as the 38.2% retrace of the original tankage. In addition, these actions also supported the 50% retrace level of the pullback move. - move off sup @ 2pm thru eod (4/2) also provided a bull bias into the close Opening above the 50dma with barely a retest by 9:45 supported the overall premise of the trade as well as supporting remaining in it. Short-term double top @ 10:50/11:51 showed the typical late-morning loss of momentum and a good place to take profits (probably early - but safe). Q's - 44 calls near close .47/.49 @ 11:52 .79/.80 for a 61.2% return I hope this helped answer your question. In no way, do I intend to imply that my assessment is the 'right' one (or even that it's remotely complete) - I strive to remain a student of the mkts and learn more every day. In this case, the setup provided a good risk/reward (and for me, anyway, screamed to be taken). As a sidenote, I apologize that I only infrequently will be able to respond to questions w/ the detail requested or required. My priority has to be on my trading (vs discussing it)....
RL, will look over what you wrote now and later...just wanted to extend a thanks for posting your observation. Cheers.
association of Realtors! thats like the fox counting the chickens. Can we all say RATE HIKE! Oh never mind I forgot their is no inflation, rate cut, rate cut.
It's quite obvious from the postings on this website that NO ONE on ET trades "technically". If they did, they would have noticed that the S&P futures got above a key pivot at 1442.00 If they did, many of these moves in the SPX would not be all that shocking, or as some wish to do on here, ascribe them to 7AM news announcements. Turn off CNBC. Look at your charts and TRADE!
I thought the ES HH at 1436 followed by the HL at 1432.75 (near the close) might get a few bulls out of the pasture and in front of their computers.