What commodities can benefit from US-Sino tension ? seems crude oil should be one. And what else in your opinion?
Haven't thought about commodities in this context, but in equities I would say the US semiconductor companies are already making big losses (and losing markets) b/c they can't sell their products anymore due to Trump's idiotic sanctions policy against China.
not many commodities were affected. occassionally US China talked about soya trade war. Then soya price would move.
One important thing to keep in mind: China is the biggest creditor in the world (surpassing World Bank, the IMF and all OECD creditors governments combined!), while the US is now the world's largest debtor. If China wants to collect its US Treasuries (more than 1 Trillion USD), game over for the US dollar and the entire American economy. Of course it is not in China's interest to do that, but still.
China could sell their U.S. Treasury securities for USD but can't force early repayment. https://www.quora.com/If-the-Chines...t-might-the-consequences-be/answers/176922872 It's like a larger-scale example of
Neither US or China are big producers of crude oil so not sure if crude oil is one. Two commodities that I can think of that would benefit from the tension are weapons and uranium. LOL
No matter how large of a creditor China is, it is still not the majority holder of the US Treasuries. 99% of the US Treasuries is still held by the American people. Only 1% of the US Treasuries is held by foreign powers and even among the foreign holders, China only holds 25% of the entire 1% of the US Treasuries so it's in no position of forcing a "game over" for US in terms of economy or its currency position. And honestly with China still a net exporter to the US, it would be committing economic suicide if it wants to destroy the US dollar. And in fact every single country has incentive to keep the US dollar as the reserve currency and is the most expensive currency in the world other than the pound and the swiss franc. That means they can dump their s*** much easier onto the American market in this global economy. Imagine if the Belgian franc is more expensive than the US dollar, how many people do you think would buy the Belgian chocolate no matter how wonderful it tastes when there is Mars bars that cost just 50 cents?
These are just squabbles. Trump as we know put the economy above all else, China are highly focused of "saving face " and propaganda. Its all just sabre rattling in my view . The banning Wechat is a huge topic here in china and the hypocrisy is just laughable from the Chinese side. There will an agreement in which both side claim they won. Its an interesting topic , I have had these frank discussions several times in my class with managers, most are CPC members. Their attitude is that if Western governments do too much whinging and no action (hows the punishment for China going on due to the Virus going? That will be forgotten). For example they say if Western governments want nothing to do with China why are they scrambling all over themselves to come here, like Microsoft, Amazon, Tessla, AMD, Dell, Apple etc. They fully admit the playing field is not level by any means but say their Chairmen is the leader of China not the USA, his duty is to the Chinese people not to the world. They look at the facts and ignore the tantrums Also they are baffled by the twitter wars and peoples need to vent all the time. It just doesn't comprehend with them . The other aspect is that they play the long game, they know Trump will go at some point where as the CPC are in place for decades to come. Trump like any president can reply on quick and empty promises, bluster to win elections (last time it was the Wall, this time it will be 'lets get China' folks) , whereas they XijinPing (like Putin) is their for life They are certainly no militay threat but they are taking over the world by stealth and economic policy (e.g. Africa) while USA and Europe get caught up in internal squabbles.
Basically nothing because we're so heavily dependent on China. It's cheaper to import than to manufacture domestically.