why would inflation rise if government stops borrowing? it should even decline. when more money chases same goods then inflation rises. forcing government to pay off debt by keeping spending in check will result in 'severe depression'. either government shows fiscal discipline over two decades or just creates massive inflation to wash out the debt via worthless dollars. but given 88% of debt is to external parties, that would be major issues developing and can even lead to war like scenarios.
If I were a political mole appointed by the executives of an administration keenly interested in these things, StarDust-- out to ferret leftist and rightist sentiment-- then the starting of this thread would be good cover while doing it. (I am not in any way suggesting the same as any hint of IRS - Administration scandal connection responsible for whacking the Right, liberty, etc. After all, the media has dropped that out of sight, and we are assured by the President who said he would get to the bottom of it.) The ostensible academics of the asking "what was the biggest driver of change during 1981-1982 ?" potentially brings out the swinging Dicks of all political persuasions intrinsically influencing their economic views. To the credit of the vast majority of posters here so far, observations of decades made largely with innocence and adroitness has made for something refreshingly different this December than the trite year-in-review. Regardless, the re-writing of history with some posts here along with supply side bashing, etc. thus far has certainly tattooed some. I think it WAS in the early 1980's these history reconstructionists came of adult age after their pivotal 1960's radicalism with their subsequent influence in academia both in what made and what did not make it in public school history books, and what was modified to taste. With the bully pulpit of being in front of the class, face-to-face with fresh student youth to be molded in their image, it was evolutionary to the socialist agenda. Whether posters here are of the 1960's or influenced by them later is of no difference. To the point of your question, Stardust, the conflation of these political with economic realities has colorfully influenced what is today's mature leaders in making decisions. The last 5 years have been their trophy piece. They are the ones shaping the context of your granddaughter's future, applying more hope and changes ahead.
I simply have an honest interest in the welfare of two granddaughters. I started it after thinking about what I could give them of value for the future. If I wanted to "ferret leftist and rightist sentiment", I could watch CNN or Fox or any of the mainstream media. They ferret every day and once in a while it is even true stuff. (The trouble is I giggle too much watching the media and associated politics. There is a technical analysis of news that can point to high percentage trends. Traders use it for market trends as well.) While I suggested the change clearly seems to occur in the very early 80s, it may simply be a 60s or 70s divergence that only shows up in the 80s. I am actually interested in intelligent commentary. As you say there has been lots. I really believe that answers will come from the margin - similar to the first turn of a market. I believe that someone knows the answers we seek but may not realize it. I am pretty sure politics will not resolve the problem. I agree that the people coming of age has taken us to where we are, but I doubt they would have chosen this outcome no matter which political stripe. I see precisely who took us there as a moot point since there have been thousands of years of good and bad politicians, yet the trends seem very powerful and still continuing. I have no doubt that the trend will end one day. I will be fine. My kids will be fine. My granddaughters? - I worry for them and all granddaughters out there. Thanks for your input.
Thanks Stardust. I can't believe a few entire sentences were omitted from my first paragraph you quoted. I noticed the ellipsis ( ... ) appeared after the last word in the paragraph suggesting something came after that (which was originally there). I want to be sure you know I was "creating a scenario" relating to government snooping, and you were not included in it. Thankfully, the rest of my post was probably suggestive that was the case. I was not intending to offend, and apparently you weren't. Looking at the past for answers is fine. Maybe the present and the future--with or without answers from the past--is equally important: Your statement that the trend will end one day begs the question that is on most of our minds: How ? I get the sense most of us that speak up do so with with a shrill pucker factor generally with the attitude "it won't end pretty" and concern that "if it you don't reform the way I want to see change, then we are probably doomed." Now that is pretty desperate sentiment ! Five years ago, after the general election, many said if we weren't doomed, we lighted the ignitors to propel us more quickly to it. To say, "I told you so," is a hollow victory now. But it heightens the desperate sentiment. Someone posted on this thread, if I understood it, that at an earlier time a few decades ago, many took the opportunity in very bad times to have made a lot of money only to have after the dust settle years later with currency worth a lot less. Something to consider: Make lots of money, traders ! In the process, ask yourself what will it be worth should the quality of life be such that there is little first responder protection or public works maintained ? If that is well beyond ours or your granddaughters' horizon, Stardust, that is good. The direction is not. You say you don't believe politicians will resolve the problem ? Who will ? The same source that put the politicians in office ? Here will be a good tea leaf to read: While the nation is getting a shot of "good stuff" injected into its veins with the energy boom about us for some years to come, will there otherwise be serious anchors around its neck ?... continuing the current ones and making new ones to be...... dragging.....dragging ? There are wonderfully good derivatives of benefit from less expensive energy; watch closely, though, who is doing what with new anchors dragging the nation. Do those anchors necessarily need to be there ? Or is it a moot point because the ship will already be structurally a wreck that not enough of us wish to repair ? Do you think, Stardust, that a society (1) largely, recently accultured and sustained on the government tit, and (2) much of the remainder of it will be so dumbed down in its quality of employment that it is going to have the guts-- the will-- to make that ship be allowed to be put upright-- cheap energy notwithstanding ? Will the potential leaders among us who have just witnessed a model of demagogic success continue the whispering of sweet things in our ears such that we elect more, not less of them ? I see the theme in your thread, StarDust, of coming up with answers by examining the past, and the objective of applying them to affect the future. You say that there are people who would have not chosen our current outcome no matter which political stripe. The nation has recently awakened to the understanding that maybe there are--leaders even--who wished to have the current status. That they have successfully made the new normal in much of America to be dependent, and not to bite the new hand that feeds them. How much more successful can those leaders be than to be re-elected ? Your premise of this thread is noble. I ask of you --with or without answers from the past-- to keep your eye on the current ball. Be among the few who tend to CURRENT EVENTS consistently and know objectively what they mean. Also, knowing well history and basic economics are so important, but I would be happy if everyone only had an interest in current events and what is behind them. Talk to others who may be opinionated, but who could exchange with you the aggendas that drive current events. CURRENT STATUS of affairs is critical. If you don't know where you are, current events will become of marginal importance. Think of yourself over the ocean at night with info on speed, wind drift, and heading, but you don't know where you are ! You have.....360 degrees of choice around you and limited gas to get to landfall. Half of those in the cockpit with you just as soon watch sitcom's beamed down from satellites. Much of the other half understands the seriousness of correct direction, and will choose it based on intuition, not fact: a combination of emotion (what looks good, what sounds good) and hope. "We see illumination with a rising moon in the distance: let's try that way !" Warning: The more you are plugged in, the less heartening it becomes finding someone else as current as you. It comes with the territory. "Less heartening" leads to a sense of danger: "These under informed are voters !" As many will tell you on this web site, greed is good. In the real world, fear is good; it may prompt you to prepare. Prepare for what and when ? "What" will be your best and probably always modified judgement. The most respected individuals in every camp will truthfully tell you they don't know "When." By accident or incident, few understood the "what" (the degree) and "the when" of the Great Recession. And who among that selected few knew the duration ? Keeping your ear to the ground and your wits about you is the best advice I have gotten to survive events. I applaud you for starting the process with this thread.