what can be predicted and what cannot be in the market?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mute9003, Jul 7, 2021.

  1. mute9003

    mute9003

    price fluctuating below then above your longer term ema line is more likely than not a prediction
    based on previous data you can predict with very high probability that if price dropped sharply below ema it will very likely rebound either to or above ema line because based on the history of every single stock the price tends to fluctuate around the longer term ema line.
    so when i see a sharp spike i can predict that the price will collapse after it peaks with higher probability of it continuing to go up.
    same forprice crashing sharply. and then rebound . being overbought and oversold.
    similar to when rubber band
     
    #61     Jul 10, 2021
  2. deaddog

    deaddog

    How do you trade that prediction?
    Moving averages only show you where price has been, not where it is going.
    By the time price gets back to the ma I predict the ma will have moved.
     
    #62     Jul 10, 2021
  3. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    Exactly. Vacuous!
     
    #63     Jul 10, 2021
  4. userque

    userque

    I suspect many aren't looking to be 'found.'
    I suspect others can be found for around two and twenty.
     
    #64     Jul 11, 2021
    easymon1 likes this.
  5. traider

    traider

    What can be predicted: markets will keep grinding up due to inflation
    Cannot be predicted: when there will be a huge crash/correction
     
    #65     Jul 12, 2021
  6. What's the basis for these statements? Have you actually done a backtest to see what happens to stocks over time?
     
    #66     Jul 12, 2021
  7. MACD

    MACD

    This has been a most interesting and informative thread. Hope it continues. Thanks
     
    #67     Jul 13, 2021
  8. panzerman

    panzerman

    An analogy is to this conundrum Schrodinger's cat. Both states are possible until you collapse the wave function and actualize one or the other events.
     
    #68     Jul 13, 2021
  9. MACD

    MACD