what can be predicted and what cannot be in the market?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mute9003, Jul 7, 2021.

  1. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    Fecundity's arguments such as:

    All things are possible
    The above is itself possible
    Therefore all things are possible.

    I.e. Those things which are vacuous or have no value. ;)

    But to the OP. There are many who say react, don't predict. Predict here meaning, acting on what you think will happen. React here being, waiting until it happens and then acting.

    It is a complex subject, and I am not really willing to try to explain all the nuances. Maybe someone else can.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2021
    #51     Jul 9, 2021
  2. easymon1

    easymon1

    Wow!
    Thanks

    What pedestrian methodology might exist to retard the rate of degredation?
     
    #52     Jul 9, 2021
  3. userque

    userque

    Automated or manual re-training/re-tuning
    Sliding window algos
    Increasing inputs, training examples, model complexity
    Improving validation
    Ensemble learning
    Multiple-model machine learning
     
    #53     Jul 10, 2021
    easymon1 likes this.
  4. easymon1

    easymon1

    Krikey
    How do you know all this good stuff?
     
    #54     Jul 10, 2021
  5. userque

    userque

    At the risk of sounding narcissistic:
    Some things I discovered on my own.
    Most things I learned via reading.
    A few things I learned via videos.
     
    #55     Jul 10, 2021
  6. virtusa

    virtusa

    If all things are possible, impossibility is possible too.
    Which is a contradiction as it would mean that possible and impossible are possible and impossible at the same time.
    But something cannot be possible and impossible at the same time. But because everything is possible that would be possible too. :wtf:
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2021
    #56     Jul 10, 2021
    shuraver likes this.
  7. deaddog

    deaddog

    upload_2021-7-10_7-8-57.png
     
    #57     Jul 10, 2021
    virtusa likes this.
  8. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    What can be predicted: market sell off.
    What can not be predicted: when it happens
     
    #58     Jul 10, 2021
    easymon1 likes this.
  9. virtusa

    virtusa

    Prediction should not be taken as "sure to happen". It is rather an increased probability that something can happen.
    My trading system "predicts" all the time what will happen. The result is that I have a higher win rate than without the "predictions". But predictions are sometimes wrong too.
     
    #59     Jul 10, 2021
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    Who's got the chops to DO this stuff?
    Where are they Found?
     
    #60     Jul 10, 2021