there are various impacts of terorrism on the world economy, some of which are major and some minor. so what are your views on the impact of terrorism on the world economy?
more uncertainty = more hedging and more complex hedging instruments and strategies. leads to higher derivatives volume. a lot of people think that derivatives create risk but you have to distinguish between cause and correlation, I think that they arrived as business got more uncertain and that they help reduce volatility, note how stocks with options on them actually have less volatility.
I would think for most industrialized nations shop lifting in stores would be a larger expense than terrorism. Now for the psychological cost associated with terrorism I wouldnt have an idea, but would think its over done in relation to the real chance of it occuring.
An economist would argue that there is a resource drain, of oh say, .05% of GDP from terrorist related activities. Of course, that would translate into contracts and government support of industries that are supported by homeland security (defense contractors, etc...) In frankness, if you look at the actual economic damage that terrorists have caused relative to the fear they create, the actual damages have been minimal.
the global terror by the likes of the US, the UK and to a lesser degree Putin's lot require so much money that the printing presses go white hot, so there is massive inflation and the prices of many commodities rise, this rise is augmented by Chindia. The risk of a pipeline or some rigs or wells being sabotaged in the Middle East put, say $11 on the price of a barrel? What is the effect of $11 pb on the global economy...gets pretty convoluted pretty quickly. jm2cw
Forget about "World Economy". Terror is simply what the West freely chose to subject itself to on its "Road to Serfdom". Impact? An unperturbed continuation of "The Suicide of the West": total eradication of 2000+ years of wisdom. If a people can't decide anymore for themselves, other people will.
------Terror is simply what the West freely chose to subject itself to on its "Road to Serfdom".-------- Somewhat Right words! but it does apply to both the parties in the nonsense of terrorism that world is facing today.
here's a segment of an interview i did with yossi ben-dak--- the foremost authority on terrorism and markets: Dave: Do you see any potential for future economic investment on the Gaza strip? Dr.Ben-Dak: Since there are so many people that do not have anything to do who live in that region, a major investor who will combine forces with the few local industries can probably get a lot done. My sense is that this scenario is probably not realistic. If anything, It will put to the test the possibility that a terror organization like Hamas will have to convert themselves to a little bit more peaceful and workable situation there. It is very difficult to predict that they will be involved in constructive efforts. They are involved in major efforts on the welfare situation because they had a lot of money from any number of agencies and foundations that supported their effort. There is no question that some of them are positive, however in general, we are talking about a bunch of leaders who are totally commited to destruction and not only occupying the West Bank for that matter, but they say themselves that they should literally take all of Palestine. Dave: Before we get into the real topic of this discussion, lets talk a little about the steps the USA is taking to combat terrorism. For example, there is a recent book called âFlying Blindâ by radio talk show host Michael Smerconish. It talks about the absurdity of the airline profiling process and screening system and why it needs to be changed. Are you familiar with his theory and is he on the right track? Dr.Ben-Dak: I got fascinated by his book because I have seen a number of interviews he has had. In one of them he was focusing on the September 11 commission and the people who are looking at Condoleezza Rice, and they asked her if she knew that if more than two Arabs per flight were questioned, the profilers where in violation of airline policy and punished. That was one of the best questions I found. It was interesting that Michael noticed and publicized that item. This was a very good point to something that is problematic. But when you go about the whole airline screening process and profiling, in the short term it is clear that there will be many people that you can describe as Arabs or Middle Eastern. I do not know when the real disasters will be looming, but you canât expect everyone coming in the game to come from that background. I think it is absolutely wrong to assume that only Middle Easterners are involved in terror. It has been shown in interviews that some people who have graduated from the terrorist training camps in Afghanistan, are people with blue eyes and light hair. There people that come from very different countries like Africa, Britain, Sweden, France, and many other countries and none of them look close to Middle Eastern. Anybody, like Mr. Smerconish, who takes a simple minded approach to profiling is going to miss a lot. What we need is people who can really look and examine the pattern of a person who is going through the screening process, or any other place where suspicious activity surfaces like public