What ARE YOU looking at? The RAMOUTAR REPORT VOL. 4

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by RAMOUTAR, Jul 23, 2003.

  1. Volume 1 – “Fear and the Market”

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=19559

    Volume 2 – “Switching TimeFrames”

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=19881

    Volume 3- “Elements For Successful Trading”

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=20208


    To reiterate the disclaimer:

    The ignorant and malicious are free to reveal themselves with replies that I will not acknowledge. The inquisitive and intellectually stimulated are invited to post constructive replies, and or questions.


    What ARE YOU Looking At?

    The RAMOUTAR REPORT Vol. 4


    You can show the same chart to several people and get different answers. “At the high, it’s going to come back in it’s getting ready to break out, it’s at the top and it can’t go any higher, or we’re headed into Liberia and the volume will dry up here which will bring in more selling pressure. Moving average “X” crossed over moving average “Y”. There’s so many more way people read charts.

    The question I have is, “What ARE YOU looking at?” What do you see when you look at the charts? Do you see the truth, or are you painting the picture you want to see and then planning your EST around it? As I’ve said before, there are a lot of people who may have a chart filled with “spaghetti”. They have 10 different moving averages, stochastics, RSI, ADX, and Bollingers, etc, etc. Now there’s nothing wrong with these tools, many of them are great. These are the people who are so deep in the forest that they can’t see it for the tops of the trees anymore. These folks can’t even identify where the major support and resistance levels are, but they know everything about %K an %D. They’ve lost touch with the basics, they will continue to become the feeders in the market’s “eco-system”.

    How in the world did people make money from 1792 until the 1920’s when charts were rarely used or available? The only remnant of the tool that people used back then is used to shower some great people in the “Valley of Heroes” otherwise known as lower Broadway in Manhattan, during the “Ticker Tape Parade”. What were THOSE PEOPLE looking at from 1792 to 1920? What did Jesse Livermore do? Was he watching CNBC, back testing his strategies, and figuring out his stochastics. They read the emotions and when the ticker came out they read the tape. I’m not bashing TA tools, I use many of them, but I stay in touch with the basics. Every single successful trader I have met has never lost touch of the basics. One weekend, take a real hard look at the tolls you use during the day. Scrutinize every window, program and screen that sucks the ram from your pc and attention from your mind. My screen looks like a Cessna cockpit, plain and simple with all of the information I need. Remember, the more your looking at the less you see.

    When I see candlesticks, I see fear, greed, pain, ecstasy, crying, laughter, inspiration and desperation in every single formation and candle, just to name a few. A chart is very much like the ink blotches a psychiatrist shows a patient, and then asks, “What do you see here?” I would drive the psychiatrist to a psychiatrist, because very one of my answers would be “ink blotch”. This may sound a little crazy but, I completely submitted to the market years ago, and I now see it as a “Supreme Being”. I do exactly what the market tells me. I trade people and emotions, not stocks. Heck, for all I care, Congress can rename them “widgets”. And as long as the NWSE and the NAWDAQ have historical data on widgets, I’ll trade them.

    Now I’ve attached two charts of stocks that have been mentioned here on ET. I’m not going to say who mentioned them, or what stocks they are. The gent who pointed these out called for a long on one and a short on the other. Is he right? Maybe. However, looking back in time you need to imagine yourself as one of the people caught up in one these positions from a couple of years ago. What would you do, if you sat with a loss for two years, and it came back to “BREAKEVEN”? We as traders may know better, but the average investor, and mutual manager who was told to hold is now looking to get out. That’s what I see when I look at charts. I say, “Ok, who’s going to give me trouble on this move?” I see angry, crying, and desperate, traders and investors who are in PAIN. They have been in pain since Q2 2001, and they’re going to slam me. That’s what I’m looking at. It doesn’t matter what timeframe you’re in, go up in timeframe and see who’s waiting to ambush you. I set my targets for areas where I’m out of their reach. When I avoid the war, I reserve my strength, which allows me to come back again and trade unscathed. Give it a try.
     
  2. This is the second attachement for the RAMOUTAR REPORT, VOL. 4
     
  3. I agree with you on the benefits of being aware of the basics. Can you elaborate? When I think basics I think of pricetime, volume, direction, momentum, candlesticks, and S/R levels.
     
  4. One of the points I stressed in the report, is that all of us at times have a tendency to get caught up in tons of TA indicators, and after a while lose sight of the basics. All TA indicators are products of price and time, and in research many cross that fine line...

    The fine line between an analyst, and an ANAL-YST. It's very easy to get caught up in predicting what will happen while its happening. I was coaching a trader last week who uses stochastics, but couldn't tell me where the minor and major S/R zones were.

    Your thinking is on the right track (in terms of this report). Thanks.
     
  5. Merc

    Merc

    Hi Jai,

    I am really enjoying RAMOUTAR REPORTS and would like to see you continuing to share with us your knowledge.

    Allow me to go back to your REPORT VOL.3 where you talk about your "Trading Stable"...

    RAMOUTAR SAYS:

    3)A “Trading Stable”: I know every single stock in my “stable” inside and out. This is the group of stocks I scan. I don’t have an interest in any stock outside of my “stable”.

    Merc ASKS:

    I can understand that you have your list of about 20-30 stocks to scan for day trading.
    But what about swing trading? I think you need much bigger stock universe to scan for low risk, high probabilities setups. Since swing trading provides much lesser opportunities. Therefore swing trader must compensate that by scanning the larger number of stocks.

    Please forgive me my ignorance.
    I am always ready to learn.

    :) :) :)

    p.s. I just hope this thread will not be removed.
     
  6. ttrader

    ttrader

    It doesn't matter. A butterfly's wings can change direction COMPLETETLY ... learn to bitterfly !!!


    ttrader
     

  7. Hi Merc,

    28 stocks to be exact. I use the same stable for all styles. Their versatility is something I look for when selecting the basket and then selecting from the basket, in this way I can swing and daytrade many of them.

    For example, QCOM is a stock that I have been trading quite a bit lately. Just recently it broke out of a three year down trend, and that event presented swing-trading opportunity. After I swung in and out of it, it also had a lot of daytrading opportunity for several days. You see I didn’t play the entire extension out of the downtrend, instead I took a large chunk out of it from swing trading, and feeling very strongly that a retracement would occur, thus meaning a short lived trend, the opportunity to daytrade it and I did with great success.

    QCOM has not yet represented the right swing opportunity for me yet, since July 17, but I still daytrade it because those opportunities are there. After penetrations above resistance on a daily, stocks often subsequently correct through time (horizontal consolidation in a tighter price range) on the daily. However, that consolidation is also in a transitional period where all of the uncertainty trades. Looking at it on a daily makes it seem quite tight, but the stock is whipping around nicely on the daytrading timeframe.

    So there’s an example of a stock that can be traded in all timeframes. AMTD is another stock in my stable. I put on a short in AMTD yesterday at $9.98 for a swing, stop at $10.31 and a cover at $8.56.This stock does not “currently” meet my daytrading criteria., but it has some nice swing to it. There is a substantial risk reward ratio there, so I also went well beyond my normal swing trade exposure. I have other positions on as well, but these two really represent well in the answer. I also have stocks in my stable that at times offer no “current” opportunities, and they will be hatching soon. There’s that saying…”You reap what you sow.” With my stable, it’s “You sow what the market toils.” These stocks represent opportunities in all timeframes “right before and right after” they have done something technically compelling.

    You said… I think you need much bigger stock universe to scan for low risk, high probabilities setups. Since swing trading provides much lesser opportunities. Therefore swing trader must compensate that by scanning the larger number of stocks.

    It all depends on how close or how far out your scans are. I look at these stocks in all timeframes. So when you say lesser, I’ll assume you mean less frequent, and in that case you’re right. However, in return for less frequent opportunities, I find more quality opportunities. Because my plan is very specific and works for me, my sights are really focused. There is also some small sense of security in staying with my stable, I’m always trading stocks that I know. Anytime one of them acts funny or different, I realize it much faster, because I have been “specializing in the stock”. That doesn’t make me an expert in it, but I have a firmer handle on it than most who are not “specializing” in it.

    I review my stable every week, and I categorize them with a “rating”. Here’s what I mean:


    A Rating:

    - Compelling daily
    - Compelling 5 day intraday 30 min
    - 100-200% Increase in average volume compared to 30DAV
    - Level II sponsorship by at least 2 of the “top ten” market makers.
    - Intraday trading range has protracted by at least 50%

    -

    B Rating

    - Compelling daily
    - Breakout or pullback pending on daily, may have daytrading opportunities
    - 50-75% increase in volume compared to 30DAV
    - trading range has protracted by at least 25%

    C Rating

    - Compelling technical event pending
    - Increase in volume

    D Rating

    - Has none of the above
    - If one of the stocks in my stable has a “D” rating for more than 3 months, I downgrade it to a “watch list”. That’s like a “grave”, perhaps one day the “market gods” will resurrect it. Many of then were dead for a long time, until the market broke out in March, and many have died again.

    I also delete a stock if it leaves the NDX or S&P 100, since that’s where I find my “stable” stocks. Once a stock goes to the NYSE, it dynamics change completely, like talking to someone who has amnesia and speaking to them about the good old days.

    Stocks are added to and deleted from the NDX and SPX all the time. My “stable” is like the “JAIX”, I have specific criteria when selecting stocks.

    I started this stable about 7 years ago. Prior to that I had a stable but it was filled with “donkeys, mules, mustangs, broncos and few “Great Dane / Poodle mixes” J , and I often traded stocks that I did not know, and lost every time. It takes a lot of discipline to focus on the same stocks and ignore the ones around you. I used to be criticized by many fellow traders, because I “NEVER TRADED AN INTERNET STOCK” most people don’t believe that, but its very true. Many days, the internets would move and I would do nothing because they weren’t in my stable. Might be a bit crazy and foolish perhaps, but I’m still here, still trading.

    You’ve got a long reply here, but I’m certain that I really answered your question.

    You also said…” Please forgive me my ignorance.
    I am always ready to learn.”


    You are always willing to learn, therefore you are NOT ignorant.


    Best regards,
     
  8. Merc, none of the reports were deleted, only a thread and poll that I started on Sunday to assess the interest in the reports, the thread became heated and was later deleted because some of the members misconstrued it as “blatant commercialism”. However, I’ll still continue to help. I don’t believe that there is an objection by Elite mgmt. to continuing to post RAMOUTAR REPORTS..

    Another report will posted here soon, I believe that around 70% of the pollsters as of Sun evening, wanted to see them weekly. Soon after that I will “cease” publishing them here in open forums, but will only send them by PM, after I receive a PM request.
     
  9. Merc

    Merc

    Hi Jai,

    As I understand you don't use scanning s/w like TC2000, Metastock, Advanced Get etc.
    What is your criteria for scanning stocks?
    And i am talking only about swing trading.

    Thanks.
     
  10. And after that only to paying subscribers?
     
    #10     Jul 29, 2003