What the technicals are saying depends on who you ask. So, who are you going to believe. But wait! Is any good news or bad news gonna come out of nowhere?
Long term I think the correction is over, and well see new highs soon. S&P 1300 is around the corner.
De-risking and volatility continues to be the trade(s) this summer. Q4 is much friendlier to bulls than Q3 2011 is the last stand of the bears...weather that storm, and look to buy the bottom in Q3-Q4 timeframe in 2011
If we keep following the Japan model, we're looking at a 3 year, 50% drop at this stage, and then a 5 year mini-bull. If we don't, who knows?
Short term - possible retest of 114-115 SPY (technical target on inverted H/S on hourly chart).... Then, we'll see - if we catch bids above 115 we may retest the top and possibly go higher. Now if we fail at 114-115 and break the lows at 104/105 we're in trouble, as this would trigger a much larger h/s on the daily timeframes.... And that target would be a retest of the 87 area from july 09. I'd watch that 115 area very carefuly for now, and not get too crazy on the longs until we break above.... At least we didn't break on friday on the back of the Spain downgrade and held firm at thursday's support. This short week should be interesting...
The June S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1122.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 1035.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1106.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1122.46. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1036.60. Second support is February's low crossing at 1035.90.