what are the signs of reversal vs pullback?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mute9003, Aug 27, 2024.

  1. Good1

    Good1

    Seems to me you would have to master breakouts and reversals before you could define what is a pullback.

    How far can you pull back from a breakout before it becomes a reversal?

    The reversal, in turn, becomes the next breakout.

    How far can you pull back from a long breakout before it becomes a short reversal, which is, itself, a short breakout?

    How far can you pull back from a short breakout before it becomes a long breakout.

    So you have to master breakouts.

    To do that you just have to come up with a rule that defines what you will call a "breakout".

    Then figure out how to sift through mountains of data in order to come up with statistics about the probabilities.

    If you are not making a profit, then come up with another rule to define what is a breakout, and run the data all over again.

    Once you can make a profit on this, then, and only then, could you then start to define what is a pullback.

    Go ahead and define a pullback. Run the data. Look at the statistics which describe the probabilities.

    If you don't like the statistics, come up with a new definition of a pullback and run the data again till you find something that beats your original profitability.

    There would be no point in getting in "early" if it doesn't add profitability to your original rule about what is a breakout.
     
    #31     Aug 29, 2024
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.
  2. from my experience, if theres a break of a trendline, then retest for a new extreme already, a 'pullback' is more likely to be a reversal especially if in the context of a trading range. usually the last exhaustive push will be strong before price fades out
     
    #32     Aug 29, 2024
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    How can we tell whether the market is going to continue or reverse direction?
    In most cases, you can't tell.

    upload_2024-8-29_16-40-0.png
     
    #33     Aug 29, 2024
    tomi01, zghorner and PPC like this.
  4. The probabilities are already built into the Fibonacci sequence.
     
    #34     Aug 29, 2024
    tuxedo69 and zghorner like this.
  5. Good1

    Good1

    Well to get a grip on the probabilities you still have to get through a mountain of data.
     
    #35     Aug 29, 2024
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Excellent post.
     
    #36     Aug 29, 2024
    zghorner likes this.
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Not worth debating.
     
    #37     Aug 29, 2024
  8. tomkat22

    tomkat22

    Then why did you even bring it up?
     
    #38     Aug 29, 2024

  9. Ah, memories. The one dimensional trading cheat code. I studied buy signals from a Guru for several years (even backtested a few of them) and realized they were 50-50 unless triangulated with a few more factors.

    And the best one was MAXIMUM PAIN!

    Get in after the disaster!
     
    #39     Aug 29, 2024
    Sekiyo likes this.
  10. zghorner

    zghorner

    @mute9003 the issue i had with pennies is you always feel late to the game and are almost always buying the top and holding the bag...praying for the next pump to get out. stocktwits is swarming with penny stock bagholders pumping their bag day in and day out...one of the saddest things you'll ever see. So logically I thought, "im just going to short when they pump...basically inverse stock twits poor people"...but of course it is almost impossible to short due to hard to borrow shares...and they don't dump hard every time so if are able to borrow, you still get burned from time to time.

    pennies are just horrible for most people. The companies are penny stocks FOR A REASON, so long term outlook is a pure gamble and typically a losing bet. for intraday, When they are moving they move FAST and new traders typically have shit execution and shit discipline...and get burned hard.

    Take a hard look at your motives. Pennies attract "get rich quick" dreamers like a moth to a flame. I am the most guilty.
     
    #40     Aug 29, 2024
    tomi01 likes this.