What are the odds of becoming a trader?

Arthur Deco · Jan 25, 2010

Inference schminference, Jack. Success in trading is all about accidence schmackcidence. Suppose that in my drunken schtupor I have a random brain phart that Friday mornings suck. But, schmashed as I am, I code up that Thursday afternoons blow. And my error tests with positive expectation. And I get rich beyond my wildest expectorations. Is that inference? Or randumbness? "There are more things in heaven and earth, Whoreratio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

NetTecture · Jan 25, 2010

::What are the odds of becoming a trader for an Asia immigrant in
::Canada?

100%. Just do it.

Becoming a SUCCESSFULL trader is another thing. But for this, neigher the immigrant status nor the asian origin makes imho any difference. It is all about psychological setup. OTOH asians are trained to work hard, which may be a positive, but it is so in basically everything, not just trading.

swiftmike99 · Jan 25, 2010

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If you want to spam your burn and churn prop shop you need to become paying member on ET.

jack hershey · Jan 25, 2010

Quote from Arthur Deco:

Inference schminference, Jack. Success in trading is all about accidence schmackcidence. Suppose that in my drunken schtupor I have a random brain phart that Friday mornings suck. But, schmashed as I am, I code up that Thursday afternoons blow. And my error tests with positive expectation. And I get rich beyond my wildest expectorations. Is that inference? Or randumbness? "There are more things in heaven and earth, Whoreratio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
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So its Monday.

The gap is up.

The sub is B2B after the BO on the RTL of prior sub 3.

We are looking for a pt 2 on BBT 1 (long) just after a short tape FTT.

Clean page four says we have to breakout from the RTL of the prior tape.

Your coding shows that we won't make it through the RTL of the short tape. My coding says that if we do, after a couple of trades a new FTT of the prior tape could be in effect. I don't care either way since I trade point to point on a faster fractal than the tape.

Here we go

TraderZones · Jan 25, 2010

Quote from jack hershey:

We are looking for a pt 2 on BBT 1 (long) just after a short tape FTT.

Here we go
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We?

Must be a heckuva tapeworm, Jack...

TheAngryHermit · Jan 25, 2010

Quote from jack hershey:

There are four of five major decisions potential traders have to make.

Most are just yes or no types of things.

The topics that matter are very clear and cut and dry. Since you have expressed your orientation, my response begins where you are and is intended to draw you to a conclusion that rsults from considering 4 or five things.

First, there is no aspect of competition in trading. Any person can participate and he is never in competion with anyone else. So the questions is: Am I going to be competing in any way? The answer is no.

Second, you point out you and your friend are ignorant. You both have an advantage. The question is this? Do I have to learn to be successful? The answer is yes.

Next, since there is no competition and knowledge is important, you need to turn to dealing with fast tracking to becoiming learned and skillful. The question is, how do I get up to speed rapidly and not waste any time along the way? You can simply observe how this learning is done by looking at other non competitive processes that yield success by going through a process that results in knowledge and skills. Anyone can become successful in trading. It is their decision. Trading successfully is like driving a car or skiing or sailing or swimming in water. Individuals do it and they have to be correct in what they do. It is a process of gaining knowledge and skills in the setting of the process to be done withknowledge and skills. A person has to go through the process of becoming equipped. The question is: Am I willing to build my mind so that I have the proper perception at all times as I do trading?

Perception is two things: sensory plus inference. Inference comes from long term memory and it combines with what is sensed to sum up to "perception".

In trading having the correct perception all the times is what is required. What is missing for you and your friend is that neither of you have any inference with respect to trading.

You have to make a decision to obtain a full range of inference by laying a foundation and stacking up a complete set of building blocks. Skiing is a good example because the foundation and building blocks are very obvious and easy to acquire.

The question is: Are you willing to do the work to acquire the knowledge and skills? For skiing you go to snow cover places and get lessons and practice on the slopes that are labelled by skill levels. I love to hike up to a wind blown cornice and edge over and just let the snow collapse and send me on my way no matter how steep it is. I was well acqainted with Warren Miller as a consequence when he began his filming. I was testing skiis for various manufacturers Enough. You get it that practice makes perfect. The fast tracking is done by having a syllabus for building your mind.

The question is are you willing to acquire a syllabus for building a foundation and putting the building blocks in place. Here you say: NO. You and your friend are takng another route. Suffice to say it is not the route to build your mind into a fully differentiated mind that will give your mind the correct inference for anything you will be sensing.

The last question is how will you handle what is now planned. Since there will not be a foundation and building blocks through practice (drills are what builds the mind), how will the experience that is coming be used?
It will likely be what is called learning repeated failure. When a person does not have supportive purposefully acquired inference, he gets what he knew before, mixed together with the resuts of making mistakes. The emotional descriptors are fear, anxiety, anger, etc. These things cause the Bohr Effect in the Brain. This oxygen deprivation causes a lot of things to kick in related to the Survival Heritage we all have. Freezing up is a common happening. It is called the Lizard Syndrome. Repeated failure leads a person who is dissoriented to want to leave where he is and go somewhere else that is safer.

Seeking safety is always done in the context of WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW. The markets are counterintuitive. No competition, for example. "Beating the market" is a common quest. Being as good as the market is called "standing still". "Standing still" doesn't work for driving a car, skiing, swimming, sailing or anything else.

Since you need to know how the mind works to build its inference, that is part of the first learning. You have to know how to learn to learn too, level by level.

What I like about trading is its simplicity and lack of complexity. BUT it is hard to get to this simplicity and fullness where you always have the proper inference to add to what you are sensing. All minds are capable of becoming differentiated fully with regard to trading the markets. The hard part is doing the drills that lead to the summit.

An ancillary question is not a yes or no question. It is a fork in the road type of question. It is: Are you going to use inductive processes or deductive processes to build your mind's inference. You already decided on induction. My choice was the other fork.

Induction brings with it many things. They are like dominos; one leads to the next. The edge is a classic starting point. An edge is a bet often referred to as a high probability trade. Prediction is an aspect, they tell me. So the next dominos are set up and they are called money management (betting management) and protective stops. Drawdowns are part of betting. So are win/loss ratios.

Making money, for excellent traders, is a by product of decision making. Some people advocate that pyschology is a big thing in trading. It has to be for them. They are gamblers with their money and other people.

A decision arrives in the space right after a sensory input is matched with inference from long term memory all built by "experiiences". Garbage in ...garbage out.... is a common expression traders use when they observe others doing what they do not do. This is why markets are so powerful.

For me, it comes down to three questions:

1. Where is the market in its cycle?

2. What is next in the cycle? and

3. How fast is the cycle changing?

How did my mind get to asking those questions and only those questions? It was a matter of getting my mind built into a fully differentiated status. I did drills to learn how the market cycle operates.
A lot of people do not become successful.

So Ryan, it looks like making the right decisions is fairly important. Most people never get the better questions on the table. Too bad.
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Are you using a speech to text program for your posts?

shortie · Jan 25, 2010

Quote from TraderZones:

We?

Must be a heckuva tapeworm, Jack...
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illinimatt81 · Jan 25, 2010

Quote from TheAngryHermit:

Are you using a speech to text program for your posts?
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Would have never seen his drunken rambling if it wasn't quoted. Perhaps Jack should be on ignore by default when joining ET?

TheAngryHermit · Jan 25, 2010

Quote from illinimatt81:

Would have never seen his drunken rambling if it wasn't quoted. Perhaps Jack should be on ignore by default when joining ET?
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Oh crap. My fault dude. Sorry. For now on if I quote him, I'll just delete his speech to text output to: "blah blah blah".

shortie · Jan 25, 2010

Quote from TheAngryHermit:

Oh crap. My fault dude. Sorry. For now on if I quote him, I'll just delete his speech to text output to: "blah blah blah".
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please don't add extra content to what jack says.