what are the odds in vegas?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by traderkay, Sep 28, 2002.

  1. like in different games? i mean more like games of chance than skill. often people say "why dont u just goto the casino?" what are the odds at a casino?
  2. Of course it varies depending on what casino you play in and their types of rules -- whether you take "special" sidebets that they offer, etc. However the standard house edge, in percentage terms, follows closely to these:

    The best odds (House edge):
    Blackjack (Las Vegas Single Deck) 0.18%
    Blackjack (Atlantic City Rules) 0.43%
    Video Poker (Jacks or Better (Full Pay)) 0.46%
    Baccarat (Banker) 1.06%
    Baccarat (Player) 1.24%
    Craps (Don't Pass / Don't Come) 1.36%
    Craps (Pass / Come) 1.41%
    Craps (Place 6,8) 1.52%
    Roulette (Single Zero) 2.70%
    Roulette (Double Zero) 5.26%

    The worst odds (and best house edge) in a casion are the games of pure chance like Slot Machines and Keno. Keno has a house edge over 20%.
  3. The odds in Vegas, Atlantic City or on the local Reservation depend on what game you playing and a few other factors. All of the games are designed to give the house the edge. The only game where the player has the edge is in blackjack. That is why most casinos now use multiple decks now. That way they discourage card counting (which is not actually counting cards) and increase their odds. The payout for slot machines runs about 94% which means for every dollar they bring in they pay out .94 in winnings. Slot machines are regulated by the state and the payout varies from machine to machine. Kinds amazing that Steve Winn's was able to build the Bellagio and many of the of the other mega resorts with so little of a margin. Dealers are paid to deal as many hands as possible per hour and are even trained how to speedup their dealing. The more hands they deals the more craps that are thrown the more money that is brought in. The same discipline that makes someone successful at playing blackjack, poker and other wagering sports will make you a success at trading. The real key to both for me is money management. Just like with trading if you want to be a success at gambling it takes a lot of hard work and tenacity.
  4. In Las Vegas, casinos make money. In the stock market, markers makers do.
  5. how do you get it? IT IS SIMPLE! do not play!
    in table poker if you play with slobbering morons you may have positive expectation. if you count cards(in Black Jack) and they didn't catch you and break your leggs - you have it.
    IN ANY OTHER GAMES you lose! as the mathematical expectation is negative. ALWAYS!
    in the markets you are even (less the vig i.e. commission you pay)
  6. gnome


    You're right. The probability of winning at gambling in the long haul is almost statistically ZERO (in the short run, the odds are better)... It doesn't matter how much you study or how much you practice. In games of SKILL, it's another matter. Counting cards in blackjack is skill. Poker, is skill... so said the Texas Supreme Court in a landmark decision.

    But why talk about trading the market and gambling in the same breath? While they have possibility of loss and uncertainty of outcome in common they have one very big difference which the trader is in control of... PROBABILITY of outcome.
  7. Casinos will now be putting in a new game called "The Random Moving Line."

    The way it works is that there is a line that randomly ticks up or down each time. People watch the line and can enter a bet at any time. Each tick the line goes against them, they lose money and each tick that it goes for them, they win money. They can stay in as long as they like provided that they have money left to play with.

    The cost to play the game is $5 per bet (ante).

    I wonder how popular this game would be.
  8. gnome


    Known by another name... Roulette! (Betting red or black... Oh, except for the vig [green]) :D
  9. "But why talk about trading the market and gambling in the same breath? While they have possibility of loss and uncertainty of outcome in common they have one very big difference which the trader is in control of... PROBABILITY of outcome."

    I though the same when I started trading in 1987...
    The big problem - how do you define and measure PROBABILITY for short term trading?
    IMHO - everything being equal sort term trading as measured for probability is like a coin toss. You can achieve positive expectation for longer timeframe factoring in economy, currency and general political trends and money supply with limited chart analisys and mumbo jumbo.
  10. aphexcoil thanks for the nice house edge stats roundup, but I meant like what are the odds for PLAYER, on a SINGLE bet. Like when you flip a coin and bet one 1 side, your odds are 50/50. How do odds at roulette, other games compare? Thanks.
    #10     Sep 29, 2002