no, this is wrong. its a form of paranoia that the minute you press the button, something bad will happen to the trade. what else to explain passing on 5 winners and afraid to play the 6th .
I know a guy who's been paper trading SPI for years and cannot ever pull trigger on a single real trade. There is some type of fear there, and a seeking of perfection which will never arrive. However, paper trading keeps him occupied with hundreds of versions of algos created. His wife works while he stays at home.
5 winners don't mean anything in terms of probability of long term positive outcome. I would insist, that the underlying reason is the same - not having a system and not believing in it. Too much uncertainty to handle, no proof it will work, money on the line, all good reason to fear pulling a trigger. If someone went thru the trouble of creating a formal system, validating it, running numerous types of testing trying to break it and it still came out promising - it is the whole different game. Lots of internal conflict that cause fear is gone. There is always a chance that it could be pathological. But it likely not a problem for most people. Val
That is just sad. Like the quote says "everybody gets what they want out of the market." One thing I like to do periodically is read / listen to the first of the Zurich Axioms about risk.
in my opinion, the only time anyone is afraid of getting in, is when they have insufficient data on the strategy. if you backtest on 100, 500, 2000 trades and your strategy is profitable over that time, there's no reason to fear getting in. If you are afraid of getting in you need more data to prove to yourself that you don't need to be.
I see if differently. That could be part of it, but often there are blocks in the subconscious from the past that can scare or freeze someone into inaction. Nothing to do actually with the market. The way you know if it is PAST trauma is when the fear (hesitation, etc.) is too big for the risk you would be taking. When it doesn't make sense. When you find yourself in fear or panic or you are frozen and can't move--and yet you are only risking a small amount, for example, and you don't know why your reaction is so strong. This is common for traders and I believe the BULK of the issues we have to get past. Not charts and strategies or even risk. But, our own subconscious trying to "protect" us from past events.
I too, have a friend who has been a paper trader for YEARS!! Never a real trade, and he maintains account minimum balances so as to obtain/pay for real-time data. At the crux of his "problem" is that he is a long-time casino host in Las Vegas. As a casino host his job is to do what is needed so his customers "spend" money. This places him in the realm of a concierge and a perfectionist. His personal life is nothing like a perfectionist fwiw. The gambling vs trading conundrum also exists for him... If the customer is spending, he is doing his job and more importantly, the customer will (ultimately) suffer a loss. Trading however is not gambling, but he doesn't see it that way. However, the most important "reason" he paper trades, is so he can converse beyond the mass media business headlines with customers, as applicable. Concierge. Perfectionist. Hopefully normal life resumes soon, and events get on the calendar. I can get tickets.
the first thing you should do is get your haircut..as if the brain is too hot it can't function correctly ! next..pick the best market to trade..if you were a "good trader" years ago then you should know the difference..if you don't..then you weren't a good trader years ago !! next..well..this is actually the hard bit..as you can try every advice under the sun..but..if you don't know what you are doing..then how can you expect to do it.. shooting a rifle is no good unless you know how to handle it correctly !!! next..remember that anyone else knows nothing about what goes on inside your head..so stop wasting your time..and..sort your own head out..simple really..and if you don't know how to do that..well..you are either too young..or..not old enough !!!!
Part of it is losing monies over the trades. If you choose to trade the stockmarket, you will have losing trades which is a given. What you have to do, is limit your losses. As the maxim goes, "cut your losses and let your winners run." Small, tiny losses should not faze any trader, it is the big losses that wipe out your account which you should fear.