Al was a beauty; he would say all break outs fail which is correct.They all do fail.....eventually. but the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent as i found out when i tried to Brooks theory into practice by shorting all break outs....they eventually failed but by that time i had blown my account. OH!!! how easy it is write books and be called a EXPERT
DANG!!! Stoopid me, why didn't I see that before??? I better go study charts a bit better to get me a 100% success rate. What indicators do you suggest, there's about a million of them, shall I use them all for a better win rate?
You seriously do not think one single chart will show you that ??? I'm surprise you're not asking for someone to post recent backtest results or recent history of timestamp trade fills (simulator or real money) that show TA does not work. Surely recent backtest results or recent history of trade fillss is much better than philosophical debate ??? Yet, you have a big problem as dozu and I mention...what if the trader is using other key variables in their trading with the TA. Regardless, still bizarre that you originally asked for just one chart to show TA failed and now asking someone to do the same under the headline "bullshit" when you can easily post your own chart as if you will end the old debates or sucker folks into a new debate. wrbtrader
Strange because so many traders want to trade like the big boys or institutional players but the same traders are not willing to use the same info that they use. Lastily, you do not need to follow "every" news and "every" fundamentals. If you did that, you'll be busy reading all day and not doing any trading. wrbtrader
We had several simultaneous bearish calls from fund managers on RIO stock overnight and today it plummeted, I'm underwater! Somehow in my stupidness I read the charts wrong and didn't see the chart predicting the event ahead of time. TA never fails (to amaze me how it doesnt work)
Your expectations from TA appear to be "overly optimistic". Just because an apparent setup breaks down, doens't mean "TA failed". (Both of your plays were technically correct, BTW.)
A couple of points at this juncture... • Most posters seem to be conflating "Technical Analysis" with 'price action' charts. • 'Price action' charts will show so-called 'pattern' failures again and again and again. Just put up a chart, cover the screen with a piece of paper, and then 'reveal' it to yourself from left to right. Using 'price action' to predict the next move, you will fail. And fail. And fail. • TA fails are easy to find, as well: look at a Lane's Stochastic in an extended rally or drop: it'll be pegged to the top side (indicating "Sell!") in a rally -- and if you'd followed the conventional wisdom, you'd have been screwed. To find a fail in everyone's favorite TA whipping-boy the MACD, just put it up, and you will see entries that reversed direction, and exits that did not -- 'lost money' to those who used those popular triggers to trade. All that said, it's just not that hard to modify any indicator's behavior to better match that of the trade-target. And with just the smallest bit of patience (or a little machine-learning optimization), you can choose not-so-popularized decision points based on evidence to trigger your trades. And you end up way-the-hell better than 50|50. But I'm left curious-as-hell as to why this thread deserved four pages in 24 hours....
If you are looking for 100%, it's inside the holy grail at the end of the rainbow. Use an indicator that you can actually understand what it means