dozu888, If nothing works, how do traders make money? Or are you suggesting traders do not make money? Explain your logical. Thanks
hi - I have explained my method in many posts. - fundamentals - valuation across asset classes - sentiments - forexIG, AAII - price action - W and V bottoms you can make money, but need to look at the entire picture.... you are sitting at a poker table, you need to consider every flop, every bet, every 'tell'. there is no money to be made just by looking at charts.... if there were any profitable pattern, thousands if not millions of traders and robots will beat you there and take that pattern away in no time. this is a race of intelligence, logical thinking, the ability to read other people's cards.... just like usually the same guys show up at the final table on the World Poker Tour.
Posting one chart when someone ask for such is not really an "argument". The OP is probably in another discussion somewhere (private message) that we know nothing about. Also, just because someone post a chart does not imply its the only thing they use in trading. I remember someone (not his user name) posted in his very first post at this forum that he uses charts (not indicators), DOM analysis, fundementals, economics and money mangement...he went into great detail about each variable in his trading. After posting that one chart, he spent most of his time at this forum defending "chart analysis" for several years that TA works but not alone to those that believe posting just one chart implies its the only thing you use or asking questions about one chart its the only thing they use. Ironic part those bashing TA used charts too but they argue they did not use it for "trade decisions". Simply, TA is the easiest target out there to debate about in trading and money management is probably next on the list of topics to debate about in trading follow by Fundamental analysis and Economic analysis... Maybe because those that use TA in their trading with other variables...TA is the easiest to talk about without putting someone to sleep like some boring story ? wrbtrader
The largest single day Dow point gain in history triggered this rally off a V bottom at end of December. Should it have been considered if it did not fit TA views/ analysis. Should fundamental analysis, news, monetary policy shift, geo-political catalyst or astrology been weighted more than TA? Who amongst us bought that day? Why not? Was that not enough. I was boating, South of France.
I find it comical, that in this age of data science and technology, guys are still charting around. Just imagine a turtle at a horse race, to see what they’re up against. I’ll beg to differ on your conviction that nothing works now. I can tell you that it’s not in patterns and trend lines. The answer lies in intelligent signal processing.
Some may argue they have a better chance punting with turtles , mutual fund behomiths, endowments, wealth funds ....than developing secret formulas in the basement to compete with Collective efforts of Phd's at ....well....I dont know where!
Intelligent processing. I buy that. If alphago runs a fund it will kick ass. Of course there are big winners out there. Problems is small guys don’t have the resources to join the arms race. Or enough money to even tag along Hence for me my own way of trading. Intelligent signal processing. But on such long time scale that no machines are needed. So yes we are on the same page.
The two prior charts showing a failed breakout are part of TA. A FBO is as part of TA as a BO is. It just requires a different timely action. Anyone showing TA as bullshit is just showing the limitation of their understanding. If one considers TA as a descriptive language rather than a forecast, it can be more informative. If one is always looking at TA for forecasts, then you’re really missing the point. Forecasts at best are 50/50, it’s depends on the supporting dataset in real-time. Much like Schrodinger’s cat, it’s state isn’t known until it’s witnessed.
For sure. Signals aren’t time scale dependent, and the required resources are proportional to targeted time scale. I know that sounds like common knowledge, but most retail players can’t grasp the realities. They think a $200 a month trading business expense at 20x leverage, allows them the privilege to make triple digit gains with 2% drawdown. And on top of that, the vast majority are grossly undercapitalized to begin with.