just saw the es journal thread. were your trades today based on this method? I don't see where a trade would be taken today? don't see it get near any of the levels you watch unless i'm being dim thx
Market being ATH doesn’t happen everyday. Maybe some day, you don’t need / have to trade. There are other levels to be traded otherwsie if you need to trade every single day.
When the market is gapping above yesterday's high or below yesterday's low I look for the highest high and lowest low during the overnight session, the high and low of a premarket trading range, and/or tests of overnight breakout levels. I feel it is all the same as I showed here before. I just adjust to intraday breakout levels when price has already broken out of the range of the day before. I look for recent extreme levels (highs/lows) and then draw straight lines extending from those levels. Then I trade breakouts, reversals, and breakout pullbacks from those levels. Look at the times below the chart. This is the 1 minute NQ. All of my trades today were NQ. All were one lot entries.
This is my experience, too. I have, however, seen systems which benefited from using a price-close above/below some specific SMA as an exit-in-profit (rather than other exit-methods also tested). I really don’t understand why moving averages should perform any better as an exit-criterion than they are as an entry-filter, though.
Exactly my thoughts too. SMA to stay in the trade until it crosses x or y sma is a simple guardrail. Thinking about Qullamaggie that exit on the 10 or 20 sma. We need “volatility” to enter a trend. An event or something that will move prices for a little while (momentum). An SMA crosses doesn’t generate, or signal, momentum in itself but as an exit it might indicate that momentum is gone. @Probability I expended my response
I was using the SMA in another way, to gauge position and volatility, 10 years ago when I went down this rabbit hole. But as a trend filter it worked on 15 minute bars, but not hourly for some reason. Also works on daily for discretionary trades, but this was found by looking over my actual trade history instead of backtest results. In any case, my own solution from the backtest project was very simple indeed. Like 8 lines of EZ language. The big surprise was all the guru signals (macd cross, stochastic oversold reversals) were total losers. Just like in live trading.
This guy trades once or twice a week live on TopstepTV. He did this video showing his indicators, charts, and set ups.
NQ. I'm no longer trading it this morning but I do watch as long as can before my boss comes in and tells me to get to work. Just copy paste the horizontal lines as the market generate additional information, then copy paste the set ups.
I'm watching to see if price gives another breakout at the upper red line, or a pullback long at the red line below the highest line. Given the character of this week's price action I'd not be looking for a short unless price broke a level and then tested that level again from below.