What are "Players" thinking?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by jasrlew, Jul 31, 2003.

  1. jasrlew


    Recently in the chat room I wondered what the "players", ie the big boys were thinking in their trading strategy and how they take advantage of the "newbies" or little guys trading the futures. Today 7-31 is a great example. Great economic news and it drops at the opening, then as Nitro put it, WHAM about ten points in the ES. Was it some part of a big plan or were they waiting for a drop in the price and then bought?

    I guess to sum it up, what do they know that the little guys don't? What do the pros know the amateurs don't? Besides volume :)
  2. dbphoenix


    They needn't be "thinking" anything. They may only need to be playing upon the fears of other traders, particularly those who have no plan (or those who have one but can't stick to it).
  3. soo many people got pimped on the chic purch mgrs report
    only to get stopped out, before dr. evil decided he wanted to have unilateral talks.....just goes to show the market finds the most pain always

    as for the big boys, most are on vacation, thats why its been so crappy the past couple weeks, no followthrough etc....
  4. AMEN.

    Simple but accurate.
    Keep it simple.

  5. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    'big boys' aren't trading against other traders either.

    that's the newbie mistake actually : to think that other traders are trading against them. they aren't.

    traders only trade against themselves. but that's another story.
  6. dbphoenix


    Even if you were to use empirical evidence only, it would not support this statement.
  7. the one pit trader I know personally on the NYBOT doesnt trade intraday. Every position his firm holds is weeks to months, and they hold a lot of em.

    so today, he's probably turning over several positions from February, and picking up several to last through the year.

    I'm not sure how representative this is of CME pits though. He's trading coffee options.
  8. Precisely.

    To extend that: Newbies think that the others are playing against them. In reality, the newbies are playing against the others. That's why they're losing.

    For some peculiar reason, however, they apply reverse psychology. Maybe it's got to do with the (un)human tendency to blame others rather than yourself.

    Once they get that they have to trade "with" the others instead, they start to follow the flow and become winners. Most ppl, however, never grasp this concept.

    Regarding "The Players" or "The Big Boys". They're in no way different from you other than that they're better than you, and that they're on the right side of the trade and you're on the other (at least more often).

    To assume that they have more power than you or something is again just a selfish, narrow-minded blaming exercise. Chances are they have less power than you in fact, since they have to conform to rules of their prop firms etc...

    You just have to conform to your own rules. Make sure you have good ones.

    To say that they have more power in terms of capital...?
    Let's have a look at the ES; on a voluminous trading minute (like in the morning), the per-minute turnover is $150-250m.

    Big players? LOL, nobody plays that big! See, that can easily be $2 billion in 10 minutes, just like that.

    Not even the biggest boys would trade against the flow with such a capital turnover. It's a much bigger game than that.

    Besides, remember that the futures aren't just driven by internal supply and demand, but also the underlying indexes.

    The underlying indexes are worth several trillion dollars.

    This should give anyone an idea how, when it comes down to it, even the "biggest boys" are just ant-sized slaves under the shoes of their master - the entire economy.

    To resist this force or trade against it is futile and outrageously stupid.

    Don't be a hero. Go with the flow. Everybody has to.

    Live long and prosper...
    ~The Scientist :cool:
  9. Nordic


    The big players use the big contract.:)

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  10. jasrlew


    How would we go about recieving this service?
    #10     Jul 31, 2003