What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Robert Modd, Mar 12, 2017.

  1. No problem. I actually think it's a legitimate question.
     
    #41     Mar 20, 2017
  2. Agreed many traders lie about results. The video shows my real account and should answer all your questions if I miss anything. Please know I recently developed this system and only began using real money in July 2016. Seed amount approximately $20,500 then I added another $20,000. Average length of trade 14 days. Compounded rate if my math is correct 54% in 6 months so 108% annually. Back tests show approximately 62% annually. Brokers fees over 6 months approximately $1416 out of approximate $14,000 in profits. So approximately 10% of profits went to commissions. Or approximate commissions costs were 5.4% of average account value.
    910M I know potential Crazy Results! Only time will tell but I am already looking to scale back and lower risk.
     
    #42     Mar 20, 2017
  3. Over last 6 months (Its only been 6 months, well almost 9 months now) after paying commissions I show an approximate 48% return. I will let you calculate annualized amount.
     
    #43     Mar 20, 2017
  4. Good to hear more precisely.

    With a seed of 40K, if you follow the return rate (annual 100%) consistently, then your asset is supposed to grow to 40*(1+1)^50 = 4.5036e+16 after 50 years (30 to 80)
     
    #44     Mar 20, 2017
  5. Great numbers but I don't see 100% returns as realistic over time. But I am hoping! I'm going to shoot for 46%, If I do 36% annually with low volatility and low drawdowns I will be very satisfied. I will do my best to do quarterly updates.
     
    #45     Mar 20, 2017
  6. It has been roughly 400 years since the stock market is(was) open in Netherlands.

    If there exist any SINGLE person who cosistently kept his annual 46% record (of course also by his sons and grandsons), the the family already got ALL THE ASSET in the world.
    Please just calculate 1.46^400.

    If there is NO ONE before who attains anuual 46% over the 400 years, then you shall not do it too most likely.
     
    #46     Mar 21, 2017
  7. I am not implying that I can make high returns over generations, but maybe I can over the next decade or so. Only time will tell. Are you interested in updates?
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
    #47     Mar 21, 2017
  8. Can someone send me to any prior threads that show actual trading results of successful traders on this forum? Thanks
     
    #48     Mar 21, 2017
  9. I agree it is very good attitude to keep track the trade record. Sometime lifetime record help for future logic change.

    Many of my friends has at least 5 years (or more than 20 years) history of ALL the trade data.
    I am sure it is valuable.
     
    #49     Mar 21, 2017
  10. I prefer the following types of record.
    1) All my life, everytime my return always between annual 10% and 20% compounded.
    2) My return rate is quite similar to Buffet's (50 years record) , as shown in http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf
    3) Tell me if there is another type.

    Even annual 20% compounded will produce roughly 5000 times, compared to the original seed (over 50 years) .
    You saving of 100K will become 100K*5000=5000M (from 30 to 80).

    However, many suckers anticipate more than the 20%, to fail miserably.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
    #50     Mar 21, 2017