What are acceptable Performance numbers

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by ehsmama, May 29, 2005.

  1. toe

    toe

    ehsmama, you dont need to dynamically create watchlists in Wealth-Lab. If you want to base trading decissions on an indicator just add it as a trading rule and simulate the entire market. For eample ...

    If SMA(Bar,#Volume,55) > 100000 Then
    BuyAtLimit etc.

    Some other idea may take a little more programming but most things can be done. For example if you want to chose stocks with the highest relative strength you can code relative strength, but an easier way to begin testing might be to trade a stock if its 250 bar return is better than the S&P500 return (adjusted for volatility).

    If you want to test fundamental data dynamically all you need is the data in some readable format. The best way is with the Bloomberg adapter, though its expensive.
     
    #11     Jun 1, 2005

  2. That's scary. Please start off small and make the system really prove itself to you before you "bet the farm", so to speak. You might find that your actual results vary greatly from your systems hypothetical results, and It never is a favorable variance.

    Good luck!
     
    #12     Jun 1, 2005
  3. NKNY

    NKNY

    I think vector vest has a new simulator costing about 3,000... I think you can specify criteria of the stocks you want and it will upate your portfolio dynamically for each trade.

    Nick
     
    #13     Jun 2, 2005
  4. Looks pretty risky to me.
    A 30% drawdown sounds ominous.
    In fact drawdown doesn't mean much without more detailed knowledge. However, drawdown is only kind of an average. Much more significant is the risk of ruin over a given number of trades or period of time. Don't forget that speculating is a brutally nonlinear exercise. Once you dip below zero, you've had it: you're wiped out. The average style drawdown doesn't take this into account. The statistical calculation kind of happily sums negative with positive values, without bothering about instantaneous zero crossings.
    Again 30% drawdown in my opinion almost garantees bankruptcy over a not too long a series of trades.

    nononsense
     
    #14     Jun 2, 2005